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China would back Russia diplomatically and perhaps economically if it invades Ukraine, worsening Beijing’s already strained relations with the West, but would stop short of providing military support, experts said.
US President Joe Biden said on Friday that Russia’s Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine within days, a claim Russia denies.
China’s foreign ministry has repeatedly blamed the United States for “spreading false information” and creating tensions, urging it to respect and address Russia’s demands for security guarantees.
In a show of solidarity, Putin visited Beijing for the Feb. 4 opening ceremony of the Olympics, declaring with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping a deepening “no limits” strategic partnership. Chinese state media said the two countries stood “shoulder to shoulder in upholding justice in the world”.
A Russian invasion into Ukraine would test China’s resolve to put those supportive words into action, especially given China’s oft-stated foreign policy principle of non-interference.
China almost certainly would not want to be involved militarily, experts familiar with Beijing’s thinking say.
Although China and Russia have moved beyond “marriage of convenience” to a quasi-alliance, relations between the giant neighbours are far from a formal alliance requiring one to send troops should the other face threats, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University.
