IPCC forecasts 2-9% GDP loss for climate change

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected Bangladesh will lose 2-9 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by the mid and end of this century due to climate change.

It says the country will displace one to two million coastal people by mid-century while rice and wheat production will decline by 12-17 per cent and 12-61 per cent respectively.

The IPCC Working Group II made the forecasts in the AR6 report on climate change released on Monday.

The report also estimated that parts of Bangladesh would lose 31-40 per cent of agricultural output in this century for sea-level rise alone caused by current emission plans.

“A third of the country’s power plans may need to be relocated over the next decade to avoid flooding from sea-level rise,” read the report.

It said Bangladesh was likely to face extreme heat and humidity risks while continued sea-level rise could force millions from their homes, threatening industry and agriculture because of climate change.

Moreover, it said continued greenhouse gas emissions would threaten Bangladesh’s safety and prosperity while the national economy was likely to face severe shocks that could halt growth.

“This report iterated that Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to climate change,” said Dr Rawshan Ara Begum, one of the coordinating lead authors of the report.

Another lead author Md Arfanuzzaman said Bangladesh was already facing climate change impacts and it would increase substantially in the coming years.

“It is very likely that most of our existing adaptions would be ineffective under both 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius warming conditions,” he said.

The report suggests that Bangladesh is among the places that will experience intolerable heat and humidity unless carbon emissions are rapidly eliminated. If emissions continue to rise, parts of Bangladesh would exceed the threshold where heat and humidity become survivable for humans towards the end of this century.

Rawshan said some communities in Bangladesh, for example, small and landless farm households, were already approaching soft limits to adapt to riverbank erosion. “With further global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, additional adaptation limits will emerge.”

“To avoid increasing losses and limits, urgent and accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, while making rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions,” she said.

As a result of climate change and increasing demand for water, about 25 per cent of people in Bangladesh will live with water scarcity by 2050, compared with about 10 per cent now. Both the Ganges and the Brahmaputra river basins will also see increased flooding as a result, according to the report.

It projected while Bangladesh would be hit hard by the effects of climate change happening within its border, it would also be deeply affected by the consequences of changes happening elsewhere.

Climate change will hit international supply chains, markets, finance, and trade, reducing the availability of goods in Bangladesh, and increasing their prices as well as damaging markets for Bangladeshi exports.

Economic shocks caused by climate change, including reduced agricultural yields, damage to critical infrastructure, and commodity price rises could lead to financial instability in the country.

“There is evidence that poor and least developed households, communities, and countries that are the most affected and marginalised by climate change and least responsible for its causes, receive relatively little financial support for adaptation,” said Rawshan.

“Bangladesh is a real example of this. International climate financing needs more attention to adaptation finance for managing climate risks in the least developed and many developing countries,” she said.