Victory of economy

After a bloody battle of 9 months (factually 8 months 23 days) Bangladesh attained final victory against Pakistan on 16th December, 1971. 51st victory day is going to be observed in this year. Question naturally arises - what kind of society or state that the people of East Pakistan expected, where does Bangladesh stand now after five decades? What progress has been acquired and where are we lagging behind? What is the position of expectation and achievement?

Many people were doubtful about the existence and future of Bangladesh at the beginning. Skeptics even predicted that Bangladesh might not survive. A meeting of the Washington Special Action Group on South Asia, chaired by US Security of State (commonly known as foreign minister) Henry Kissinger, termed Bangladesh as a basket case. After 10 days, on 16th December, 1971 Bangladesh achieved final victory. Within the first three years various natural and man-made disasters were rushing to prove Bangladesh as a bottomless basket. A poor war-torn country was bewildered by so many internal and external adversities like rising oil prices around the world, high inflation, reduced foreign aid and food assistance, trade disruptions, cyclones, floods, smuggling, famine, administrative mismanagement and corruption. But the propagandists of bottomless basket did not even see that standing on debris Bangabandhu’s government initiated the process of rebuilding the country with scanty resources and minimum support.

In 1973 Austin Robinson, Emeritus Professor of Cambridge University, prepared a report called Economic Prospects of Bangladesh for the Overseas Development Institute in London. There he said, ‘One question is constantly being asked by all, will Bangladesh be able to survive (viable)? No economist had answer to this question. What is the alternative to not being able to survive? Death? Has any country ever died? It can be poor, may be stagnant but does a country become unsustainable? He explained cautious optimism regarding the future of Bangladesh. After around five decades from 1973, if Mr. Robinson were alive, he would certainly repent for not being strongly optimistic about Bangladesh (report - Deutsche Welle and The Hindustan Times Bengali, December 2021).

At the beginning, in congruence with one fundamental principle of state administration,) state-controlled socialistic development policies were adopted maintaining high rate of import duty, protection of domestic industry etc. There was no other way except nationalising industrial undertakings and banks left by the West Pakistani owners. Role of private sector in employment and investment was very little.

Gradually policy was changed. Later governments encouraged market economy, some of the nationalised industrial undertakings and banks were disinvested and the door of private sector was opened. Local investors started coming forward. Readymade garments sector started its journey in 1978 through exporting 10,000 pieces of men’s shirts made by Riaz Garments (proprietor Mr. Riazuddin) to France earning 1,30,000 Francs. In the year immediately after liberation Bangladesh exported goods worth US $ 34 crore 84 lakhs, 90per cent of it was jute and jute goods followed by tea and frozen foods (2.25per cent). At that time there was no name of readymade garments but after 50 years readymade garments, alongwith remittance, is a main source of foreign currency earning. Jute sector earns only 2.62per cent.

During last five decades tremendous development has occurred in agriculture, economy, social welfare, women empowerment, pharmaceutical products, disaster management, child vaccination and many other sectors of national life. At present 43 local private banks (according o information of Bangladesh Bank) are operating in Bangladesh providing 1,07,255 employments including 6per cent, 14per cent and 18per cent women at top, mid and entry level respectively. Apart from it 30 non-banking financial institutions, 45 general and 32 life insurance companies are now working which have also created huge job opportunity.

As per World Bank classification Bangladesh was upgraded from low income to lower-middle income country on 1st July, 2015. As an outcome of consistent improvement in per capita income growth Bangladesh was included in that list. In March 2018 the United Nations Committee for Development Policy recognised Bangladesh as eligible for transition from LDC. In February 2021, the committee made its final recommendation for Bangladesh to transition. In addition to per capita income the United Nations has considered Bangladesh worthy of transition from LDC based on the improvement in other social indicators including education, health and economic capacity. In 2026, Bangladesh will leave the LDC and join the ranks of non-LDC developing countries like India, China, and Malaysia. In 2020, The Economist published a list of 66 strongest economies where Bangladesh was 9th. Bangladesh has attracted attention of the world by achieving many indicators of the Millennium Development Goals. Bangladesh was able to reduce the poverty rate by 2015 more than the MDG target and has received various international awards for achieving MDGs.

Dream of digital Bangladesh is now a glaring reality. More than 9 crore people are using internet, 4G mobile service is running, 5G is ahead in next year, e-passport, e-tender, e-commerce, publishing results of public examination through online, digital service centres down to union level, online system of admission, payment of utility bills through mobile phone, online banking etc. are instances of success in digital sector. Bangabandhu Satellite and Rooppur Nuclear Power Plaant has elevated Bangladesh to the level of satellite and nuclear age.

 Next to China, Bangladesh now is the second highest exporter of readymade garments in the world having a workforce of around 40 lakhs, 43.18per cent of them are women (RMG Bangladesh, 18th September, 2021). In terms of production Bangladesh is now 3rd in freshwater fish and vegetable, 4th in rice, 7th in potato, 9th in mango and 10th in cereal. Old age allowance, widow allowance, shelter scheme, distress allowance one house one farm, Veer Nibash (housing project for war-wounded and insolvent freedom fighters) etc. are noticeable achievements. The government is firm in its zero tolerance policy against terrorism and extremism. The international world has praised the government’s actions in combating terrorism and militancy. Bangladesh ranks 50th out of 153 countries in the Gender Gap Index and 7th in political empowerment of women. Construction of 100 Special Economic Zones, more than two dozen hi-tech parks and IT Villages is in progress across the country.

According to 2020 index Bangladesh is now the 41st largest economy in the world. As reported by the World League Table 2021, published by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a British economic research organisation. Bangladesh will be the 25th largest economy among 196 countries in the world by 2035 if the current development process continues.

Maritime victory is a great achievement for Bangladesh. After the settlement of boundary disputes of the Bay of Bengal with Myanmar and India by two judgments passed by the international Court in The Hague in 2012 and 2014 more than 1,18,813 square kilometres have been added to Bangladesh maritime territory. Bangladesh got 12 out of 17 blocks claimed by Myanmar and all the 10 blocks claimed by India. Now Bangladesh owns 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone with all kinds of resources located at the bottom of continental shelf from Chittagong coast upto 354 nautical miles. This achievement has opened a new era to Bangladesh economic development.

However, nothing is flawless in the world. Bankimchandra has written – “There are thorns in creepers, worms in flowers, poison in smell -----”. Experts say that only visible infrastructural development and graduation to developing country are not sufficient. In spite of huge success there is wide lack of good governance which is making all developments pale. According to ND-GAIN Country Index, Vulnerability and Readiness, 2020 Bangladesh ranks 153 out of 188 countries in the field of good governance. In rule of law Bangladesh ranks 162 out of 179 countries (Worldwide Governance Indicators, Data Bank - World Bank 2021). Question may be (and is always) raised regarding accuracy and acceptability of such ranking but public perception can’t be denied nor ignored. Development without good governance is meaningless. People’s participation in social and cultural activities is not at all encouraging. So many banks and financial institutions are working but amount of default and fake loan is rapidly increasing. Despite 53 public and 108 UGC approved private universities quality of education is a burning question. It is alleged that some of the private universities are just commercial enterprises and factories for selling certificates.

According to scholars corruption is a serious problem. Anti-Corruption Commission Chairman commented that there is a lack of good governance in the country. Corruption is an obstacle to good governance. ---- If the people do not want it, it is not possible to fight corruption only through the ACC.  The work of curbing corruption has started but the desired result has not yet come (Jugantar, 26th February, 2018). Even State Minister of Planning. Shamsul Alam has termed corruption as a big social problem. Without corruption, growth would have increased. The government considers corruption as an obstacle to development and a major challenge in the transition of LDCs (Samakal report, 14th August 2021).

As believed, democracy is a precondition of development and good governance.  Political parties, ruling and opposition, always shout for democracy but their views on democracy are always reverse. As a result, democracy is still in crisis. Some politicians have introduced a new theory – development first, not democracy.

Most of the politicians aim at election, not good governance because election is their ladder to ascend power and power yields many things.  But that election is alleged as not fair. Experts think that practice of democracy and good governance should begin from within political parties – position, opposition or no position but it is absent in Bangladesh. Moreover, lack of political tolerance, confronting politics and mistrust among political parties are matters of growing concern.

Nobel laureate economist Armatya Sen wrote in his book Bharat: Development and Deprivation that no one thought that Bangladesh would advance rapidly along the way of social development. After independence many people said that the future of Bangladesh is dark. Some called it a basket case and suggested for not giving any economic aid because Bangladesh will not be able to keep pace in food production with population explosion.

He also said that Bangladesh is not only doing much better than India in different well-known criteria of quality of life but has also progressed a lot. Bangladesh has surpassed India in many social indicators, such as life expectancy, infant mortality rate, immunisation rates, traditional fertility rates and even some measures of schooling. The whole world now considers Bangladesh as a role model of development. After 50 years of victory we are seeing another prestigious Bangladesh in the world assembly.

Rabindranath has written – “India will again get the best seat in the World Assembly.” Standing on 51st victory day, changing this line slightly we must say that Bangladesh will acquire a better position in the world forum.

The writer is a former Commissioner of Taxes