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A significant low-pressure system that has developed in the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify further into a severe cyclone from 6 am on Sunday (May 14) to 6 am on May 15 and hit Bangladesh coast with wind speeds ranging from 180 to 200 km/h.
Mostafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on meteorology and climate at Saskatchewan University in Canada, said on his Facebook page on Tuesday that cyclone Mocha is expected to hit the districts of Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, and Maungdaw in Rakhine State of Myanmar at a speed of about 200 kilometres per hour.
“There is still uncertainty over its exact path. It may slightly shift towards Myanmar or Barishal division, which could potentially lead to its impact on Chattogram and Noakhali districts. Additionally, there is a possibility of the cyclone moving slightly to the right and making landfall over Cox’s Bazar and Maungdaw district of Rakhine State in Myanmar,” he said.
The storm is also likely to cause tidal waves reaching a height of 15 feet in two coastal districts of Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar, 7 to 10 feet in the coastal region of Barishal division and five to eight feet high tidal wave while crossing Khulna division, he said.
The cyclonic storm Mocha may lash over Saint Martin’s Island, Teknaf, Kutubdia and Moheshkhali upazila and can cause potential damage to Rohingya camps in Teknaf upazila, he anticipated.
Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar may witness 250-400mm rainfall while 200-300mm rain may occur in Barishal and hill tract districts.
Besides, he predicted 150-250mm rainfall in Khulna district, 100-200mm in districts of Dhaka and Sylhet and 100-150mm in the districts under Mymensingh division.
According to the latest bulletin of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), a well-marked low-pressure area that has developed over the Southeast Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a depression on Tuesday and subsequently into a cyclonic storm on Wednesday.
The cyclonic storm is likely to move north-northwestwards till May 11 and later, likely to recurve gradually and move north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts, IMD said.
However, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) on Tuesday evening stated that the low-pressure area over Southeast Bay and adjoining South Andaman Sea intensify into a well-marked low over the same area. It is likely to intensify further. Trough of lows lies over West Bengal and adjoining areas.
