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As the Aman season approaches, the rice market in Bangladesh typically becomes unstable, often leading to rising prices and hardship for consumers. In such situations, the government usually turns to imports to stabilise the market.
However, despite some production losses of Aman paddy from flash flooding this year, government officials and rice traders remain optimistic about production and stock levels, indicating that rice imports may not be necessary for the fiscal year 2024-25.
Government officials and market insiders report that rice prices have remained stable so far, and the cultivation of Aman paddy across the country, including the northern regions, is in a good state.
Even if around 4,00,000-5,00,000 tonnes of Aman paddy are lost due to the floods, they believe that rice imports would still not be required. For now, there are no immediate plans to import rice.
However, government sources assured that they remain prepared to approve rice imports if there is a shortage after the Aman harvest.
Aman harvest to boost supplies
The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), under the Ministry of Agriculture, estimates that the country's annual rice demand is close to 35 million tonnes. In contrast, domestic production from the three main rice crops – Boro, Aush and Aman – surpasses 40 million tonnes. Notably, around 40 per cent of this rice comes from the Aman crop, while another 6 per cent comes from Aush, with the remainder from Boro.
According to data from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh produced a total of 39.4 million tonnes of paddy and rice in the fiscal year 2023-24. Of this, 22.4 million tonnes were harvested during the Boro season, 14.6 million tonnes from the Aman season, and 2.4 million tonnes from Aush.
Flood damage won’t trigger imports
Damage assessments from the Ministry of Agriculture revealed that flash floods in regions such as Chattogram, Feni and Lakshmipur caused damage to around 6,85,000 tonnes of Aush and Aman crops.
However, officials from the Ministry of Food remain confident that rice imports will not be necessary. Traders in the rice industry express similar sentiments.
Former Food Secretary Md Ismail Hossain, who was recently made Officer on Special Duty (OSD) and transferred to the Ministry of Social Welfare last Monday, told The Business Post earlier that day that, given the current stocks in government warehouses, there is no need for rice imports.
“The Aman harvest will begin in just a few months, which will further boost rice supplies,” he said.
The ex-food secretary also noted that if Aman production does not meet expectations, the government would approve imports to meet demand.
“We are closely monitoring the market and are fully prepared to act accordingly,” he added.
Rice prices hold steady
According to figures from the Ministry of Food, as of September 30, the government’s food warehouses held buffer stocks totalling 1.743 million tonnes, comprising 4,64,000 tonnes of wheat and the remainder in rice.
Kausar Azam, vice-president of the Babubazar Rice Merchants Association, echoed the government's confidence while speaking to The Business Post, saying, “Private sector stocks are also sufficient. We have not encountered any issues with placing orders for rice from mills, and prices have remained stable. Usually, rice prices rise before the Aman season, but that has not been the case this year.”
According to wholesale price data from Babubazar, coarse rice is being sold at Tk 35-40 per kilogram, Guti-Swarna at Tk 40-45, Atash rice at Tk 50-55, and fine varieties such as Miniket and Jirashail at Tk 62-70 per kilogram. Premium varieties like Nazirshail and Zira Nazir are priced between Tk 70-73 per kilogram.
Traders report that these prices have remained stable for the past two months, with only minor fluctuations and there has been no significant upward trend.
Farmers key to meeting demand
Farhad Hossain Chawkder, general secretary of the Naogaon Rice Mill Owners Association, told The Business Post that although there are still about two months before the Aman paddy harvesting season begins, there is no indication of a rice shortage in the market.
He noted that the Aman crop in Naogaon has seen strong yields, and if favourable conditions continue, production is expected to be excellent. “This strong harvest will compensate for the losses caused by the floods, and as a result, we believe there will be no need to import rice,” he said.
Chawkder advised that any potential shortages should be met through domestic production, rather than imports, to support local farmers. “We must prioritise domestic production, keeping the interests of the country's farmers in mind,” he added.
