Consumer price inflation in Bangladesh is expected to come down to 7.3 per cent while the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to rise to 6.3 per cent year-on-year in 2024.
The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) has revealed the data in its annual economic outlook for the coming year on Tuesday.
The country’s inflation stood at 9.49 per cent in November, a slight decline in food and non-food prices, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cited the country’s volatility in macroeconomic situation over the last few months and lowered the country’s GDP growth to 6 per cent from 6.5 per cent, an earlier projection in April.
Besides, the World Bank in its latest World Development Outlook report also cut the country's growth forecast to 5.6 per cent from its earlier projection at 6.2 per cent.
The MEI forecasts on the Asia Pacific, adding that Asia Pacific consumers are likely to spend more on discretionary items in 2024.
“As the economic ripple effects of the pandemic subside in 2024, Asia Pacific consumers should be able to allocate a larger share of their wallets to discretionary spend such as travel and entertainment,” it adds.
This is in comparison to 2022-2023, years marked by high inflation, that caused essentials (or ‘needs’) like groceries and fuel to take up a larger percentage of household budgets, leaving less money left over for ‘wants’ or extras.
“2024 is set to be a year of recalibration as consumers rebalance their wallets. And what the data shows is that people remain eager to travel and dine out, although levels vary from market to market,” said David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, Mastercard.
“Amidst this disorienting global backdrop, the Mastercard Economics Institute helps clients to translate macroeconomic forces down to the country, category, and even company levels, in addition to counselling on possible scenarios and the implications they would have on demand,” Mann commented.
Signifying another shift in demand, in 2024, consumers across Asia Pacific are expected to spend more on goods than they did in 2023, it adds.
This marks the start of a new cycle that will see growth rates for goods rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, reversing the 2022-2023 trend that saw consumers prioritizing key ‘out-and-about’ services such as dining and ‘revenge’ travel as economies re-opened post-pandemic, it says.
In 2024, the rising demand for goods, such as household items and clothing, is also expected to resuscitate the Asia Pacific manufacturing sector, which plays a crucial role in the global economy.
This shift will drive a convergence in performance between the manufacturing and services sectors in the region which trended in opposite directions as manufacturing lagged and services boomed in 2023.
