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The government has earmarked Tk 63,530 crore for the top 20 ongoing large-scale projects, mostly infrastructure, which is 24 per cent of the proposed total allocation for the Annual Development Programme (ADP) in the national budget of FY2024-25.
Of the projects, six are supposed to be completed in FY25. However, according to the pace of their implementation so far, none will be able to meet the deadline even if the authorities ensure maximum utilisation of resources.
There are four on the list of large-scale projects that were scheduled to be completed by FY2023-24 but they are running behind deadline as well. These projects will need more time and cost overrun is also evident from the ADP allocation considering the rising inflation in the country.
The government has categorised 17 out of 20 mega projects as low priority in FY25 and two projects as high priority.
The two power sector projects — Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) and Matarbari 2x600MW Ultra Super Critical Coal Fired Power Project — account for 15.2 per cent of total Project Aid (PA) in ADP of FY25. However, RNPP accounts for 25.8 per cent of the total allocation for the power and energy sector.
Padma Bridge Rail Link (1st revised); 4th Primary Education Development Programme (PEDP4) (1st revised); Expansion of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (1st phase) (1st revised); Construction of 329 technical schools and colleges at the upazila level; SASEC Road Connectivity: Improvement of Elenga-Hatikumrul-Rangpur-Highway into 4-Lane Highway (1st revised); Construction of dual gauge double line on Joydebpur-Ishwardi section; and Development of Transmission Infrastructure for Power Evacuation of RNPP are the projects that are likely to remain incomplete in FY25, according to the budget analysis by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
The independent think tank also said that in the case of four projects, Expansion and Strengthening of Power System Network under DPDC Area (1st revised); Construction of Single Line Dual Gauge Track from Dohazari-Ramu-Cox’s Bazar and Ramu to Ghundum near Myanmar Border (1st revised); Ghorashal Polash Urea Fertiliser Project (1st revised); and Power Grid Network Strengthening project under PGCB (revised), the need for time and cost extension is evident from the ADP allocation.
1,246 projects in FY25 ADP
The government earmarked Tk 2,65,000 crore, which is 4.7 per cent of the GDP, for ADP to implement its development projects. Some 37.7 per cent of the money will come from project aid and the government will provide 62.30 per cent.
The transportation and communication sector has received the highest 26.7 per cent allocation of ADP for its highest 220 projects, followed by the power and energy sector — 15.4 per cent. Education, housing and community amenities, and the health sector followed them in terms of allocation.
The ADP for FY25 contains 1,246 projects. It was 1,250 for ADP of FY24.
The share of allocation for continuing projects has further declined while that of concluding projects has increased. The continuing projects got 40.8 per cent of the allocation in FY24, and in the FY25 budget, it will be 38.5 per cent.
The budget allocation will go to 370 continuing projects. It was 313 in the outgoing fiscal year.
A total of 57 new projects have been added to the proposed FY25 budget, which was 30 in FY24. Their share in the allocation has also increased to 1.80 per cent from 0.40 per cent.
Time-overrun projects continue
Currently, the average age of 1,138 investment projects is 5.2 years and 357 (31.4 per cent) of them are six to 10 years old due to repeated extensions of deadline. At least 36 of them are more than 10 years old.
Some 45.5 per cent of investment projects in ADP for FY25 have already been revised between one to four times. The number of projects with time extension increased from 429 in FY24 to 518 in FY25.
According to official documents, a total of 474 projects are scheduled to be concluded in FY25.
The proposed FY25 budget also has an allocation for 345 ‘carryover’ projects, which accounts for 17.3 per cent of the total allocation. In FY24, it was 22.3 per cent of the total allocation.
The transportation and communications sector has 87 of these projects, followed by housing and community amenities (59), environment, climate change and water resources (37), education (29), and industrial and economic services (21).
Thus, the total number of projects which should be concluded in FY25 stands at 819, even though the Planning Commission has identified only 270 projects that may be completed in FY25 — which means many of these projects are unlikely to be finished in FY25.
The prevalence of carryover projects would imply the need for additional allocation due to cost escalation as well, CPD said in its analysis.
