Bangladesh is going to set the merchandise export target at $60 billion for the fiscal year 2023-24 with the projection for a 7.99 per cent growth against export earnings to the tune of $ 55.55 billion in the just-concluded fiscal year.
Even though exports grew by 6.67 per cent in FY23, the government failed to achieve the target. The export target was set at $58 billion in the last fiscal year, up 33.33 per cent from $43.5 billion in FY22.
The Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) has proposed the Ministry of Commerce for setting the export target for FY24. The ministry is expected to review the proposal and set the export target at a meeting today (Wednesday).
The government targeted $67 billion in earnings from exports of goods and services in FY23, an 11.60 per cent increase from the year before, according to the Commerce Ministry. Due to the global economic crisis, the government is going to reduce the export target growth compared to last year.
The EPB has proposed a merchandise-export target of $60 billion and service export target of $10 billion for the current fiscal year. The merchandise export target increases by $2 billion and service export target by $1 billion in the current fiscal year compared with last year.
The government set the merchandise export target of $58 billion and service export target of $9 billion for the FY23, which was 11.36 per cent higher than actual receipts in the previous fiscal year.
A commerce ministry official said that the export target would have been higher if there was no economic crisis, although the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the draft of "Export Policy 2021-2024" on 12 January 2022, setting the $80 billion export target for FY2024.
About 84 per cent or $52.11 billion is expected to come from the readymade garment (RMG) sector, which is projected to see a growth of 10.90 per cent. Also the target for home textiles is $1.23 billion with a projected growth of 12.76 per cent for FY 24, according to a proposal placed at a meeting of the commerce ministry.
The proposed target and growth for leather and leather goods are $ 1.35 billion and 10.33 per cent, jute and jute goods $ 1.02 billion and 11.81 per cent, agricultural products $ 0.95 billion and 12.69 per cent, engineering products $0.63 billion and 7.54 per cent, non-leather footwear $ 0.53 billion and 9.64 per cent, headgear and cap $ 0.52 billion and 7.53 per cent, frozen and live fish $ 0.47 billion and 11.30 per cent, yarn, waste and fabrics $ 0.43 billion and 4.59 per cent.
The total export earnings are estimated to reach $ 64.55 billion--goods $55.55 billion and services $9.0 billion--by the end of FY24, up 4.14 per cent than that of the previous FY.
In FY22, Bangladesh exported goods worth $ 52.08 billion, 19.73 per cent higher than the target. The service sector hauled in $8 billion to set a new record for export earnings. In comparison, the country earned $38.75 billion in exports during FY21, missing the target of $ 41 billion.
Terming the export target set for the current fiscal year rational, Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID) Chairman Dr Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said that though growth is projected to rise by 7.99 per cent, the downtrend in exports will continue for next three to six months due to global economic crisis. “It is a right decision to set such an export target if the global does not change,” he said.
Considering high inflation, reserves shortfall and volatility in the currency exchange rate, it is good to reduce the export target, he said, adding that the mathematical system is not used in the target set in the export policy. Usually, the export target is set based on an approximate calculation.
The government should devise long and mid-term strategic plans to boost exports before the country’s graduation from LDC status, he said, suggesting radical reforms for setting such an export target.
During the post-LDC era, he said, it will be difficult for the government to sustain in the global market. There are also problems relating to export diversification. So, the government should make plans taking all these things into account, he added.
