Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal is set to place the national budget of Tk 6.78 lakh crore in the Jatiya Sangsad for FY2022-2023 on Thursday.
The size of the budget will be about 15 per cent of the country's gross domestic product or GDP.
This is the country’s 51st budget and the 23rd of the Awami League government in five terms. The budget will see special measures of tax exemptions on agriculture, food processing and small sector development.
The revenue collection target set for NBR (National Board of Revenue) is Tk 4.33 lakh crore, an increase of 9 per cent from the revenue target of the current fiscal year and annual development programme (ADP) is set at Tk 2.46 lakh crore.
Experts emphasise on having measures to control growing inflation, stabilise foreign exchange rate and steps to ensure food security.
Tajuddin Ahmad presented the maiden budget as the first finance minister of the post-independence Bangabandhu government in 1972.
In the upcoming budget, the target of GDP growth is set at 7.5 per cent and inflation will be kept at 5.5 per cent.
In the proposed budget, the expectation of GDP is set at 7.5 per cent – around Tk 44.50 lakh crore, which is Tk 16 lakh crore more than the FY22, the Finance Division sources said.
The GDP size in FY22 was Tk 28.34 lakh crore.
The government policymakers believe in FY23, three major infrastructures of the country will help in achieving the GDP growth despite projection of decline in the global economy due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Officials concerned said that three big mega projects will be launched in FY23. The Padma Bridge will be opened on June 25. This will open new doors for business and trade, which will have a positive impact on the economy.
The ministry officials said development of power, energy, communications and transport sectors will also boost growth following completion of the mega projects.
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The impact of the development of these sectors will play an important role in achieving the growth of other sectors including industry, they said.
Naturally, importance is being given to agriculture for achieving growth. Therefore, emphasis is laid on ensuring supply of agricultural inputs and maintaining subsidy.
Growth is expected to be accelerated if the ongoing reforms in various sectors (revenue sector and investment) are implemented, they said.
According to the Finance Division, the prices of food, fuel and fertiliser have risen sharply due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Farmers are getting it at a lower price as the government is subsidising fertiliser. A plan has been taken to give a subsidy of Tk 12,000 crore in agriculture in the next financial year as well.
The implementation of incentive packages in the new budget will also be continued. This will add to the sector-based GDP.
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In this context, former caretaker government's finance adviser AB Mirza Azizul Islam told UNB that if there is no growth, there will be stagnation in the economy.
“Poverty must be reduced through ensuring employment by increasing the coverage of social safety net programmes,” he said.
Policy Exchange of Bangladesh Chairman M Masrur Reaz said the budget faces challenges to keep a stable exchange rate of forex and import trade inflation.
The budget should have measured inflation as well as price control of commodities and the health sector by developing institutional capacity of government entities.
The government set an ambitious revenue collection target of Tk 4.33 lakh crore, comfortably the highest ever, although meeting this target has never been the point.
The NBR, a wing of the Internal Resources Division, usually collects revenue for the government.
The upcoming budget is set to have a Tk 4.33 lakh crore revenue target that is Tk 44,000 crore more than the target in the budget for the current fiscal and 9.8 per cent of GDP.
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As per the calculation, the budget deficit would stand at Tk 2.44 lakh crore that is 5.5 per cent of GDP.
According to sources at the finance ministry, the government would borrow Tk 1,28,341 crore from the domestic sources and Tk 1,16,523 crore from abroad to meet the deficit in the proposed budget.
Of the domestic borrowing, Tk 93,889 crore would be taken from the banking system while Tk 34,452 crore from savings certificates.
