Kabul falls, what next?

In the rugged inaccessible mountains in Afghanistan, Taliban fighters endured for the last 20 years with one goal in mind – take control of Kabul and set up their own government. Today the harsh reality has come before the Afghans. The government of Ashraf Ghani totally disintegrated and Kabul has come into the grip of the Taliban. The inevitable has happened sooner than expected with the departure of the last American military contingents from the capital. US military was the last obstacle for the Taliban fighters and now that the Americans are no longer there, Kabul is once again back to them.

The last 20 years saw Afghan military and the Allied forces fighting bloody battles with the ragtag Taliban forces in the mountains, valleys and also in towns. Scores of people have died during this period and thousands have been made refugees, most of who had fled to Pakistan. At one point it seemed the war would go on forever, with no side claiming a major victory. But the abruptness with which the end came has left the common Afghans and political watchers scratching their head for an answer. The 300,000 Afghan soldiers, trained by the allied forces, simply vanished in thin air when it came to facing the Taliban forces.

Students and pundits of international relations are finding similarity with the ensuing panic after the fall of Saigon in 1975 and that in Kabul only a few days back. The photograph of young Afghans climbing on top of a passenger airplane only reinforces our fear of the level of brutality Taliban forces will unleash on the common people.

Now that Kabul has fallen, what next? What kind of government the Taliban will form? What will be its foreign policy? Will it be as harsh and brutal as the last time when they had run the country; especially subjugating women in the most horrendous manner? Possibly we have had a glimpse of the kind of rule they are going to introduce. A proclamation from the Taliban says no girl above ten years will go to school and women will not work in any office.

With regard to female education there seems to be no central policy. While in one province under their control they allowed female education up to primary level (below the age of ten), in another it was totally banned.

The Taliban chieftains have difference of opinion on many issues including what kind of government they want to form and to what extent the Sharia law will be inducted throughout the country. Experts tend to believe that unless all the diverse groups learn to respect and adjust different views, anarchy may set in at one point leading to civil war.

Most world leaders have taken the Taliban takeover of the entire country with a grain of salt. They are still in a state of disbelief and trying to collect all pieces in a bid to complete the puzzle.

The Taliban takeover has been termed by Britain as a failure of the international community. Britain thinks that the West’s intervention was a job only half-done.

On the other hand Iran’s new President Ebrahim Raisi on Monday said that the “defeat” of the US in Afghanistan would usher in durable peace in Afghanistan.

Thought to have come too early in the day, China announced it was ready to establish friendly relations with the Taliban. The Talibans also expressed their hope to develop good relations with China, especially for the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.

Word of caution regarding human rights has been sent to the Talibans by some world leaders. Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern implored the Taliban to uphold human rights, especially to allow women to continue in work and education and to let foreigners and Afghans who want to leave the country go.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the Taliban’s must cease violence. Russia commented Taliban takeover of Kabul was ‘unexpected.