The new Afghanistan landscape

On 8 July US President Biden was asked if a Taliban takeover was inevitable. The President had said: "No, it is not." However, he also admitted, "the likelihood there is going to be one unified government in Afghanistan controlling the whole country is highly unlikely". It appears that he and his Advisors were not completely correct in their assumptions. At that time Pentagon spokesman John Kirby was obviously also wrong in his calculations.

By the middle of July it become evident that the Taliban, emboldened not only with the US and NATO troop withdrawal but also the peace talks in Doha being deadlocked- decided to press for full military victory- and that is exactly what happened.

The last two weeks of August, before the complete departure of US, British and NATO troops, witnessed several unfortunate and deadly incidents. Each day brought uncertain consequences. The world followed with horror the death of nearly 170 persons including 13 US service members who were killed as a result of suicide bombings at the Kabul airport by the affiliates of the local followers of the Islamic State at the end of August.

The situation as it stands today has seen the political dynamics in Afghanistan transforming into a totally unraveling chess-board. Despite the gruesome activities in Kabul, the US and other coalition aircrafts have been able to facilitate the evacuation of more than 123,000 people from Kabul airport since 14 August - a day before the Taliban took control of the capital.

The dreadful attacks by IS affiliates and the failure of the former US and NATO supported Afghan government led by their President Ashraf Ghani- who ran away from his duties in Afghanistan during the crisis- has led President Biden to be critical of their role.

US President Joe Biden has subsequently made an interesting observation about this unfortunate turn of events. He was categorically clear: “We spent over a trillion dollars. We trained and equipped an Afghan military force of some 300,000 strong- incredibly well equipped- a force larger in size than the militaries of many of our NATO allies. We gave them every tool they could need. We paid their salaries, provided for the maintenance of their air force, something the Taliban doesn’t have. We provided close air support. We gave them every chance to determine their own future. What we could not provide them was the will to fight for that future.” The Taliban can only agree with this observation.

The takeover by the Taliban of Afghanistan and the stunning speed with which this has taken place does not appear to have surprised some experts who have been monitoring the U.S. reconstruction efforts for the past 20 years. They have started highlighting a string of critical flaws in the U.S. approach, many of them rooted in fundamental misunderstandings according to the office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR. They have now mentioned that the U.S. goals were often "operationally impractical or conceptually incoherent." 

They have published a list of eight paradoxes the U.S. and its partners should have paid more attention to. That includes- (a) rooting out corruption, (b) improving formal governance and eliminating the culture of impunity pertaining to financial management, (c) giving Afghan security forces a competitive edge against the Taliban, but also limiting them to equipment and skills that they could sustain after a U.S. departure, (d) building a credible election process, (e) reducing cultivation of poppy and (f) empowering women through education so that they can become economically independent, but also remain culturally sensitive and respectful for Afghan traditions.

SIGAR has also listed several core challenges the U.S. needs to take away after the evacuation of their diplomatic and other personnel. These include- (a) developing a more coherent strategy when they decide to send their armed forces abroad for any duty associated with their national interests, (b) not underestimating the time that might be required to achieve these objectives, (c) planning a more secure and sustainable approach with regard to infrastructure projects and reconstruction efforts and (d) regular monitoring and evaluation of such projects to ensure accountability.

Geo- political strategist Alastair Crooke has, within this scenario, made a remarkable remark –“the Taliban we see today is a far more complex, multi-ethnic, and sophisticated coalition, which is why they have been able, at such breath-taking speed, to topple the western-installed Afghanistan government.” They, according to Crooke, are also aspiring to play a regional role as a pluralist Sunni Islamist government which will respect different religious sects, and permit girls and women to be educated. Some of this is already evident- but with the premise that education facilities will be separate for girls and boys.An interesting question has also arisen about why China, India, Russia and the US have been so keen pertaining to Afghanistan. There is the geo-political angle but there appears to be another significant factor.

Julia Horowitz from CNN revealed on 18 August that, Afghanistan is one of the poorest nations in the world but the Taliban today are apparently sitting on US Dollar 1 trillion worth of minerals that the world desperately needs.  Apparently, in 2010, US military officials and geologists revealed that the country, which lies at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, had mineral deposits worth nearly US Dollar 1 trillion that could dramatically transform its economic prospects.

Supplies of minerals such as iron, copper and gold are scattered across provinces. There are also rare earth minerals and, perhaps most importantly, what could be one of the world's biggest deposits of lithium — an essential but scarce component in rechargeable batteries and other technologies vital to tackling the climate crisis. Demand for metals like lithium and cobalt, as well as rare earth elements such as neodymium, is soaring as some countries are trying to switch to clean technologies to slash carbon emissions. Security challenges and a lack of infrastructure have till now prevented the extraction of most valuable minerals in Afghanistan but it is being hoped particularly by China that this might change soon under Taliban control. Consequently they have extended their hand of friendship to them.

Bilal Kuchay, an analyst tracking India’s efforts in Afghanistan feels that the Taliban’s return to power is a major setback for India. New Delhi has invested US Dollar 3billion in development projects, offered scholarships to Afghan students, and helped construct the Afghan Parliament building at a cost of US Dollar 90million, earning huge goodwill for its efforts from previous Afghan governments. They were also involved in “400-plus projects” in all 34 provinces of that country. Bilateral trade between the two countries had also increased significantly over the years and reached US Dollar 1.5 billion in 2019-2020. India is probably feeling a bit insecure now because they see the Taliban as a proxy of its archrival Pakistan. It is this element which probably persuaded their Ambassador in Qatar to have a meeting with the Taliban Representative there.

The sudden collapse of the Western-backed government in Kabul and the capture of that city precipitated an unprecedented exodus of diplomats, foreign aid workers and Afghans who worked for Western countries and feared reprisals from the Taliban.

The last US military flight left Kabul airport on Tuesday, 31 August, marking the end of a 20-year presence in Afghanistan and America's longest war. The C17 aircraft took off with the US Ambassador onboard.  Celebratory gunfire by the Taliban was heard after the last plane departed.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has described the evacuation as a "massive military, diplomatic and humanitarian undertaking" and one of the most challenging the US has ever carried out. "A new chapter has begun," he said. "The military mission is over. A new diplomatic mission has begun." He added that while the US had suspended its diplomatic presence in Kabul, transferring operations to the Qatari capital of Doha.   He has also underlined that the Taliban needed to earn its legitimacy and would be judged on the extent to which it fulfilled its commitments and obligations to allow civilians free travel to and from the country, protecting the rights of all Afghans including women, and preventing terror groups from gaining a foothold.

It is true that America's longest war is probably over, but the battle for Afghans within Afghanistan has certainly not come to an end. The Taliban now has a quest for legitimacy and a Seat in the United Nations.

The writer, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. He can be reached at muhammadzamir0@gmail.com