Electric Vehicles are the future

With one eye firmly on progress so far, Deloitte has analysed the most recent indicators to develop an up-to-date prediction of the EV market for the next ten years. We know that BEVs already outperform PHEVs globally, and predict that by 2030, BEVs will likely account for 81 per cent (25.3 million) of all new EVs sold. By contrast, PHEV sales are expected to reach 5.8 million by 2030. A recovery from COVID-19 will see ICE vehicles return to growth, up to 2025 (81.7 million), then experience a decline in market penetration thereafter.

Our global EV forecast is for a compound annual growth rate of 29 per cent achieved over the next ten years: Total EV sales growing from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025, then reaching 31.1 million by 2030. EVs would secure approximately 32 per cent of the total market share for new car sales (see figure 2). Annual car sales are unlikely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024. However, the pace of recovery is forecasted to be a result of a slowdown in ICE sales; EVs will continue to have a positive trajectory during the COVID-19 recovery period and may well end up capturing a disproportionate share of the market in the short term.

Deloitte expects that by 2030 China will hold 49 per cent of the global EV market, Europe will account for 27 per cent, and the United States will hold 14 per cent.

The share of new car sales taken up by EVs will vary considerably across markets (see figure 3). We forecast China to achieve a domestic market share of around 48 per cent by 2030 – almost double that of the United States (27 per cent), and Europe should achieve 42 per cent. But this doesn’t tell the whole story. Growth in Northern and Western Europe is expected to outstrip that in Southern and Eastern Europe as wealthier countries (such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Nordic countries) likely invest more in infrastructure and offer greater cash and tax incentives to accelerate initial growth.

deloitte