Home ›› 09 Oct 2021 ›› Editorial
Some heart-warming information concerning Bangladesh’s progress and prosperity in various sectors is coming our way almost on a daily basis. These are the benchmarks that should guide us in surging ahead to reach even bigger milestones as a nation. Albeit there are stories of lacking or failures that exist side by side but that should not pull us down to a state of despair by any means.
When we hear about the Standard Charterer’s report that says Bangladesh will continue to grow at over 7 per cent in the next four fiscal years, which could turn it into a $500 billion economy with a per capita GDP of $3,000 by FY26, we feel encouraged to face bigger challenges. The bank also observed that while the pace and distribution of global recovery remains highly uneven, Bangladesh has made a strong comeback with one of the highest GDP growths in the world in 2020.
The report further said that “Bangladesh’s economy is set to accelerate after a speed bump, with GDP growth forecast at 5.5 per cent in FY21 and 7.2 per cent in FY22. The momentum will be driven by an export demand recovery, strong remittance inflows and public investment. Policy support is a prerequisite for a smooth transition to middle-income status, with per capita GDP set to reach $3,000 by FY26.”
On the same topic the World Bank observed that with continued recovery in exports and consumption, Bangladesh’s economy is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in Fiscal Year 2021-22. It projects our exports are expected to grow by 9.4 per cent while imports 7.7 per cent. Similarly, private consumptions will rise by 5.5 per cent and public consumption 8.7 per cent. The report was published in South Asia Economic Focus titled Shifting Gears: Digitization and Services-Led Development released on Thursday. The GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.4 per cent in FY22 before accelerating to 6.9 per cent in FY23. For the current fiscal, Bangladesh set 7.2 per cent GDP growth.
A couple of months back we were elated when the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres praised the growth of Bangladesh in many vital sectors and termed it as a “Miracle.” The UN chief also said that the common priorities of the UN are also the common priorities of Bangladesh. In this connection, Bangladesh prime minister pointed out to the UN chief that Bangladesh was a role model of development and requested him to appoint more Bangladeshis in higher posts in the UN. She mentioned the contribution of Bangladeshi peace keeping contingents in various countries.
This is highly encouraging that the global leaders at the UN have pledged financing, dose donations, support for country readiness and delivery, and scale-up of global manufacturing to enable equitable access to Covid vaccines. Reportedly, to improve access for the lower-income economies, the US will contribute an additional 500 million doses of Pfizer vaccine, to be delivered through COVAX, beginning in 2022. Sweden will provide an additional $243 million through 2021 and 2022.
No denying Bangladesh is the emerging South Asian model for economic development, a success story for the UN that is being discussed at various colloquiums across the continents. Economists and development experts do not hesitate anymore to consider it as a rising star among the South East Asian economies with a healthy per capita income. They were impressed by the way the economy of the country performed in 2020, registering a growth rate of 2.4 per cent, whereas India’s GDP shrank by 7.3 percent during this period. The comparison is relevant when we take the availability of resources of the two neighboring countries into consideration.
The positive rate of growth during the ravages of Covid-19 is considered phenomenal by experts at home and abroad, commenting that only a few least developed countries in South East Asia could match Bangladesh’s record in this respect. Bangladesh gained success in many other human development areas as well, such as life expectancy, which was 72.6 years in 2019, a gain of over 7 years since 2000. The mean years of schooling are up and the country’s human development index (HDI) value has climbed upward significantly since 2000. One estimate says that Bangladesh ‘s HDI is better than that of both Pakistan and Nepal.
On reviewing the country’s achievements on its 50th anniversary, a World Bank report maintains that the bank now classifies it as a lower-middle-income economy. World Bank further said that it deserves praise and can offer important lessons for other low-income countries. All the indicators of development lead to the fact that other South East Asian countries are already facing steep competition from Bangladesh.
Experts say that Bangladesh’s economy largely revolves around the readymade garment sector, which accounts for 84 percent of its total exports. This needs to be added here that the performance of some of the RMG factories during the lockdown is highly praiseworthy. If the major seaports had functioned round the clock to support RMG export, we would have seen more revenue from this sector. The second source of foreign currency earnings is huge volumes of remittances coming in from overseas Bangladeshis. This must be mentioned that the remittance figures kept inflating during the pandemic despite facing many adversities. The agriculture sector is expected to see 4.1 per cent growth followed by industry 8.1 per cent and service sector 5.6 per cent.
We must say at this point that Bangladesh did not reach the stage of ‘miracle’ overnight. The vibrant private sector deserves full credit for keeping the wheels of economy turning all the year round. The concerted efforts of the business leaders and development partners, supported by business-friendly policy of the government, will help us achieve the coveted status of ‘Middle Income’ country in due time.
We appreciate the words of the Planning Minister when he said, “The people of Bangladesh, including the government and our business community, have once again demonstrated our tremendous resilience, ensuring that our shared development journey might have slowed, though it has not been halted. We remain as committed as ever in fostering a business-friendly climate so that we can continue on our journey of inclusive progress and prosperity.
The writer is Associate Editor at The Business Post
