BBS plans to release quarterly GDP data

It indeed is a welcome development the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics – for the first time in the country’s history – plans to sign Memorandums of Understanding with stakeholders from different sectors for publishing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on a quarterly basis. In case the MoUs do not get signed BBS has an alternative plan to conduct surveys in the respective sectors.

In Bangladesh GDP is typically calculated on an annual basis. However, in many countries, including several regional countries it is calculated on a regional basis. Some nations even release GDP data every month. In the US the Bureau of Analysis (BEA) publishes an advance release of quarterly GDP four weeks after the quarter ends, and a final release three months after the quarter ends. The BEA releases are exhaustive and contain a wealth of details, enabling economists and investors to obtain information and insights on various aspects of the economy. High quality data is the foundation for meaningful policy-making, efficient resource allocation, and effective public service delivery. Data equals knowledge. Reliable data provides indisputable evidence, while anecdotal evidence, assumptions, or abstract observation might lead to wasted resources due to taking action based on an incorrect conclusion.

According to a report published in this newspaper on Saturday, from now on the BBS will include 19 sectors for making quarterly and annual GDP growth forecasts. Previously there were 15 sectors. The quarterly data, we believe will play a vital role in understanding, knowing, adopting and taking action regarding the economy. The data, which is supposed to be made public, will provide a crucial tool for investors, business leaders, and policymakers– both domestically and internationally.

GDP is the standard measure of the value of final goods and services produced by a country during a period minus the value of imports and GDP is the single most important indicator to capture these economic activities. BBS will not publish the quarterly growth report this year. Instead, the report will be published on a regular basis from the next fiscal year.

The quarterly GDP data has the most impact on the markets as it is the first snapshot of how well the economy is performing. Subsequent releases have limited market impact, unless there is a significant variance from the advance GDP figure, since a substantial amount of time has already elapsed between the quarter-end and these releases.

GDP is perhaps the most closely watched and important economic indicator for both economists and investors alike because it is a representation of the total dollar value of all goods and services produced by an economy over a specific time period.

The government attaches great importance to annual GDP growth outcome because of its primacy in enabling development progress. If the GDP data is released quarterly, it will be easier to gauge the progress and take actions accordingly.

Releasing GDP data is particularly useful when the economy comes under exogenous shocks like the Covid-19 pandemic or from a slowdown in external demand. The data can serve as a signal to policy makers that corrective policy measures have to be taken to protect GDP growth from the down-turn.

However, for this to happen it must be ensured that the data is authentic and no manipulation takes place. GDP, whether released annually or on a quarterly basis, is no number game. It has real consequences for people’s welfare that cannot be masked or manipulated through an accounting process. However, BBS is known for their professional approach regarding collecting data and their estimate of GDP growth has been quite credible and we hope BBS will continue to live up to their reputation. The report must be published immediately after the end of a quarter.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics decision to release quarterly GDP data comes at the right time as the quarterly GDP figure is regarded as a crucial indicator all over the globe. There has been a strong demand for quarterly GDP data from different stakeholders, which will provide a more accurate and clearer picture of the economy’s performance.