Multilateralism for a pandemic era

We are nowhere near the end of the pandemic. Delta will not be the last highly transmissible variant. Large unvaccinated groups and the unchecked spread of the virus around the world raise the prospect of further mutations, possibly evading today’s vaccines, that will create new waves everywhere.

Yet Covid-19 is also a forerunner of more, and possibly worse, pandemics to come. Scientists have repeatedly warned that without greatly strengthened proactive strategies, global health threats will emerge more often, spread more rapidly, and take more lives. Together with the world’s dwindling biodiversity and climate crisis, to which they are inextricably linked, infectious disease threats represent the primary international challenge of our times.

Recognizing this new reality of a pandemic era is not fearmongering but rather prudent public policy and responsible politics. We must organize ourselves on a whole-of-society basis within nations and rethink how we collaborate internationally to mitigate its profound consequences for livelihoods, social cohesion, and global order.

Covid-19’s only benefit has been to put the case beyond doubt. Our collective failure to heed scientific advice and invest in pandemic prevention and preparedness has inflicted a catastrophic toll. Official data put the number of deaths at over 5 million; credible unofficial estimates are a multiple of that number. Many more people have survived serious illness, with long-term consequences for their well-being and nations’ human capital that have yet to be determined. The world has experienced the deepest economic contraction since World War II and a significant rollback in progress in education, poverty eradication, and inclusive development for a large swath of its population. The IMF has projected large cumulative losses in global GDP by 2025, with particular impact on the developing world.

Overcoming today’s pandemic remains the immediate task. Rich nations must make good on pledges to donate their projected substantial surplus vaccines, along with grants to bridge the $23 billion shortfall needed to get jabs into arms and provide test kits and other medical supplies. All that is a very small price to shorten the pandemic everywhere.

But we also need a more fundamental reset to avoid blundering into pandemics again and again with enormous human and economic costs. The current system of global health security is not fit for purpose. It is too fragmented, overly dependent on discretionary bilateral aid, and dangerously underfunded. We must repair the system with urgency. The next pandemic could strike at any time, whether from a deadly influenza strain or another pathogen that jumps from animals to humans. It may even strike while the world continues to struggle with Covid-19.

We cannot avoid outbreaks altogether. But we can sharply reduce the risk that they will blow up into pandemics. The world has the scientific and technological capabilities and the financial resources to do so. However, to mobilize these resources, we need a new way of thinking about international cooperation.

Rather than financing global health security under the mantle of “aid for other nations,” we must treat it as a strategic investment in global public goods that benefit every nation—rich or poor.

The Group of 20 major advanced and developing economies (G20) established a high-level independent panel (HLIP) to conduct a full review of the gaps in global public goods. It was aided by extensive consultation with experts, the global health organizations, and the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, an independent group established by the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank.

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