Towards a climate-friendly ‘just transition’

As the curtain falls on a tumultuous year and we step into another with high aspirations, the clamour grows for boosting clean energy and pursuing policies that would help secure a green and socially just transition for Bangladesh preparing to release a new five-year national power plan soon.

Today, only about 3.5 per cent of the country’s power comes from renewable sources as the government plans to increase the percentage to 40 over the next two decades. But climate activists say it lacks the comprehensive approach needed to achieve that goal. We depend on natural gas for more than half of our power, while a further 8 per cent comes from coal and the share will rise if plans to build coal-fired plants are implemented. But that would be incompatible with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit planetary heating - and could put Bangladesh at higher risk of climate change impacts such as rising seas, environmentalists argue.

Under the Paris accord, nearly 200 countries agreed to slash emissions to keep global temperature rise “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times and ideally to 1.5C. Scientists say the earth has already warmed about 1.1C since then and is projected to heat up by 2.4C even if current targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 are met. Bangladesh’s emissions are minimal compared to developed nations, but if it rolls out plans to build new coal plants, it will likely miss its climate goals while adding unsustainable energy infrastructure and jobs. At the COP26 climate summit, governments backed the need for a “just transition” approach, including efforts to secure workers’ rights and livelihoods as economies shift to greener production to tackle climate change.

The concept of “just transition” has only recently entered the national conversation - and more focus is needed to turn it into a reality on the ground. Some policy initiatives suggest Bangladesh is committed to ramping up green energy. Earlier this year, for example, it cancelled plans to build 10 new coal-power plants. But according to the government website, it is still working to add eight others, most of which are under construction. The “Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan”, launched this year and presented at COP26, focuses on low-carbon growth. CPD’s research director Khondaker Golam Moazzem noted the real-world impact of the government’s publicly stated aim of boosting wind and solar energy is not yet visible since a gap exists between the political commitment and the bureaucratic process.

Officials say Bangladesh’s carbon emissions are very low compared to other countries, and its steps are necessary for economic growth and development. Apart from small steps in the Bangladesh garment industry, the world’s second-largest clothes exporter, the principles of a just transition rarely apply, researchers say. About 140 out of at least 2,000 garment factories that export clothing are certified by LEED, a US-based ratings system for green buildings. Those factories are putting solar panels on their rooftops, seeking new ways to recycle water and chemicals, and using more energy-efficient machines. Greener factories and clean energy require more capital investment.

Bangladesh is one of the countries most at risk as the planet warms, bringing worsening storms and floods. Migration to escape encroaching oceans in coastal regions could drive at least 1.3 million people from their homes by 2050. Researchers suggest creating job opportunities in towns away from overcrowded cities is essential to manage future flows of people. There is need for a just transition for the migrant labour force and planning for decent work and new green jobs by bringing together officials, trade unions and employers’ groups.

The ILO, working on a just transition for the RMG industry, believes solutions need to come from within the sector. A senior ILO specialist said climate action and just transition processes could lead to many opportunities in Bangladesh.

From adopting clean energy in garment factories to helping coastal migrants settle in cities, Bangladesh still has a way to go in planning a greener, fairer future which will require policy changes and a determination to follow through.