Covid-19: Lockdown fear stalks as cases surge

Even as Bangladesh shuts educational institutions and hospitals begin filling up with coronavirus patients, the people out on the streets seem hardly bothered, with many choosing not to wear face masks, the most basic protection against the virus. The pandemic situation has been going downhill since the beginning of this year after weeks of improvement.

When Bangladesh enforced a countrywide lockdown in 2020 to stem the spread of coronavirus, millions were left without work and many without food, forcing them to undergo bouts of hunger, joblessness and prolonged poverty. As the country records thousands of new cases for consecutive days and the government imposes strict restrictions, there are fears and speculations about another spell of lockdown although it does not seem to be on the cards – at least for now. 

The Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) said that even at the end of December, the detection rate was below 2 per cent which climbed to more than 31 per cent on January 23. There are apprehensions that it will go up further if the people keep showing a lackadaisical attitude. Fears of another large-scale outbreak persists as WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead Maria Van Kerkhove says that Omicron transmitted “very efficiently” between people. 

But there’s a silver lining: although the number of cases have soared, hospitalisations have not. Scientists, citing recent studies, say the development signals a new, less worrying chapter of the pandemic. “The general public needs to worry about reducing their exposure to the virus,” Van Kerkhove said, noting that there was an upward trend of infection and that the situation was “getting worse” day by day around the world. 

No room for complacency

The DGHS on Sunday warned that although the Delta variant was still predominant in Bangladesh, the Omicron variant had started spreading at the community level and if the situation persists, it will emerge as the dominant strain.

DGHS spokesperson Prof . Dr Nazmul Islam advised people to consult doctors if they have symptoms like runny nose, headache, fatigue, sneezing, sore throat and cough. He said the number of Omicron patients and hospitalisation was increasing and urged the people to maintain health rules, warning that if the number of patients continues to increase, it will put additional pressure on the healthcare system.

Bangladesh reported coronavirus cases on March 8, 2020 and the first fatality 10 days later. Until January 23, the caseload soared to 16,85,136 with 28,223 fatalities and 15,56,861 recoveries. There are currently 20,716 Covid-dedicated beds at hospitals, of which 3,290 were occupied, according to DGHS data retrieved on Jan 23. 

“We have no room for complacency,” the DGHS spokesperson said. 

The vaccination situation has improved with 9,24,26,233 first doses administered. More than 5.8 crore people have been vaccinated with the second dose. Over 1.28 crore students have received the first jab and more than 14 lakh students have got the second dose. On the other hand, more than 1.79 crore people have been vaccinated with the first dose and more than 96 lakh people have received the second dose through community clinics. 

“If we want to overcome this pandemic, we must follow the health protocols,” DGHS spokesperson Islam said.

Strict restrictions placed

DGHS Director General Abul Bashar Mohammed Khurshid Alam on Jan 17 attributed more than 80 per cent of the newly-detected cases to the Delta variant. He described the rising infection as an “ominous sign”.

On Jan 10, the government imposed an 11-point restriction as coronavirus cases continued to surge. The restrictions will remain effective until further notice. Flouting the rules would invite legal actions.

Mask use has been made mandatory in shops, shopping malls, markets, hotels and restaurants and all public gatherings. All must use masks in offices and courts or outside of homes. Mobile courts would be conducted to ensure that the rules are followed.

The government also made showing Covid-19 vaccine certificates mandatory while taking food at restaurants or staying at hotels. Trains, buses and launches shall operate at half their capacity. All social, political and religious functions will remain closed at open space until further notice, the government announced.

On Sunday night, the government ordered operating public and private offices with half of their workforce for two weeks until Feb 6. 

But the Dhaka International Trade Fair and the Bangladesh Premier League cricket are going on and preparations are afoot for the book fair scheduled to be held next month. There have already been concerns over flouting health rules at DITF.

Not another lockdown, please

Millions of people were left without jobs when the country first enforced virus lockdown in 2020. The economy took a severe blow and traders struggled to stay in business, many were forced to scale down operations or shut down.

This year, several mega projects such as the Padma Bridge and Metro Rail are scheduled to be opened. And lockdown will only push them back.

The economic impact will be much more severe. Bangladesh suffered economic stagnation but overcame the negativities thanks to a raft of measures by the government which continues its efforts to keep the wheels of economy running through different policy supports and liberal financial stimulus packages. It has so far announced stimulus programmes worth Tk 1, 87,679 crore through 28 packages. Of those, Tk 1,06,522 crore has been spent till October last which is 56.76 per cent of total allocation. With this, around 6.74 crore people and around 118,000 institutions have been benefited.

Bangladesh’s GDP growth rate was 5.43 per cent in the last fiscal year after facing the coronavirus impacts. The per capita income stood at $2,554 in 2021. A report of “The Economist” in 2020 ranked Bangladesh ninth in the list of 66 emerging strong economies. According to a forecast of the World Economic Forum, Bangladesh will be the 24th largest economy in the world by 2030.

Earlier this month, the World Bank projected Bangladesh’s economy to grow by 6.4 per cent in the current FY and 6.9 per cent in the next one. As per the WB estimate, the GDP growth was 5 per cent in FY21. In a recent report, the UN projected 6 per cent growth for Bangladesh in 2022, noting: “Amid sound macroeconomic policies, Bangladesh has navigated the Covid-19 pandemic relatively well … Economic activity rides on export growth and the rising demand for apparel, robust remittance inflows, and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.”

Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal said the country was “ready to tackle all challenges” and that the economic impacts of Covid-19 will not be as dire as feared.

Lockdown will hinder the country’s overall progress as it races towards its goal of becoming a developed nation. It will be the last thing anyone will want but the pace at which the infections are rising, we simply cannot rule out the possibility. The government is doing its bit and for our part, we have to follow the simple health rules if we don’t want the situation to deteriorate any further.

The writer is a journalist. He can be reached at [email protected]