National Adaptation Plan for Bangladesh: An analysis

The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) has been in place to reduce vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change, especially in developing countries, by having conscious planning based on projections of future climate change. NAPs have been considered among the most valuable tools for adapting to climate change which helps countries conduct comprehensive medium and long-term climate adaptation planning. Depending on adaptation capabilities and activities and integrate climate change into the national decision-making process.

The main objectives of NAPs are to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience and adaptation into new and existing policies and programmes, especially development strategies. According to United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change(UNFCC), 129 developing countries have initiated their NAP process, in which Bangladesh is not an exception.

As of March 2021, twenty-two developing countries, of which six LDCs had completed the preparation of their first NAP and had submitted them to the UNFCC NAP Central. The latter provides and facilitates access to data, information, and knowledge on adaptation assessment, planning, and implementation to all relevant stakeholders in LDCs and other countries developing national adaptation plans.

Following examples of other countries, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MOEFCC) in association with Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Center for Climate Change and Environmental Research(C3ER), Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies(BCAS) and International Centre for Climate Change and Development(ICCCAD) with the funding support from Green Climate Fund (GCF) and UNDP has been working and developed a draft National Adaptation Plan(NAP). It tried to identify country-specific adaptation needs, design and implement strategies, and help decide actions to protect vulnerable communities.

Considering the climate vulnerability situation of Bangladesh, NAP’s key considerations are to reduce its impact on agriculture and livelihood vulnerability crop, fisheries, livestock, agriculture-dependent livelihood); managing water resources( water infrastructures, water-related disaster management), looking after urban areas(urban wetlands and health, urban infrastructures, urban landscape and livelihood, water supply sanitation and hygiene (WASH), addressing the situation of drought, coastal zones and Chittagong Hill Tracts ( disaster management, coastal infrastructure, irrigation, and food production, freshwater availability, ecosystem and biodiversity, and WASH 9water, sanitation and hygiene).

The objectives of NAP are to gather and analyze information, develop risk scenarios, generate experience and science-based adaptation strategies in line with Bangladesh’s priorities elaborated in the SDGs, Delta Plan 2100, Perspective Plan, and five-year plans taking care of its graduation from LDC to Middle Income Country.

It followed the guidelines of the roadmap of Bangladesh NAP by MOEFCC in 2015, technical guidelines of NAP by Least Developed Countries Expert Group of UNFCC, The Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA) guidelines, gender mainstreaming guidelines, private sector engagement toolkits, guidelines of amplifying ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) by UNFCC. Also, guidelines for nature-based solutions by IUCN, Guidelines for Integrating Agriculture and Fisheries into NAP by FAO, MRV Toolkit for Climate Change adaptation, Guidelines for Climate Resilient Health Care Facilities by WHO, and several others.

Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of IPCCC, the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the AR6 is the most up-to-date physical understanding of the Climate system.

AR6 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) produced an assessment of three Working Groups. Scientists point out that climate change interacts with global trends such as unsustainable use of natural resources, growing urbanization, social inequalities, losses and damages from extreme events and a pandemic, jeopardizing future development.

UN Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2001, established a work programme to address specific needs and particular situations of LDCs.

According to the work programme, preparing and implementing the National Adaptation Program of Action(NAPA) was planned, and a Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) was established. The COP 13 in Bali in 2007 adaptation was brought to an equal footing with mitigation. The NAPA framed in Bangladesh in 2005 was further streamlined with Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan(BCCSAP) in 2009. The formulation of NAP emerged as a way forward to implement BCCSAP.

COP16 in 2010 emphasized the enhanced action on adaptation in LDCs to the UNFCC through the Cancun framework by establishing the National Adaptation Plan(NAP) process. COP 17 in 2011 in Durban adopted a Green Climate Fund of USD 100 billion per year to adopt climate impacts, and COP 18 in Doha in 2012 highlighted the need for developing NAPs in LDCs and developing countries based on the technical guideline for NAP in 2012 by LEG.

NAP in Bangladesh will facilitate effective adaptation planning and integration of Climate Change Action Plan(CCA) in the national development process. It has been prepared to identify medium and long-term adaptation strategies and programs for enabling system transitions and climate-resilient development. Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan(MCCP) 2030 has been formulated and presented at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of Parties( COP 26), which will be implemented by 2030.

Draft NAP has gone through a lengthy process. Several stakeholders consulted at national , districts, and upazilla level, and a number of KIIs and FGDs were organized. To reduce vulnerabilities, prioritize the adaptation strategies and options, the economics of adaptation and implementation mechanism, etc., to assist the government in identifying their medium and long term needs to address climate vulnerability. The process has been inclusive and participatory and involves various stakeholders group, including the private sector.

The global climate Index ranks Bangladesh as the world’s 7th most climate-vulnerable nation among ten official countries throughout 2000-2019(WB 2021). World Bank study estimates displacement by climate change could reach 13.3 million by 2050( 2018). Coastal Zone people of 36 million will face frequent storm surges, sea-level rise, and erosion salinity(MOF 2021). NAP document highlighted that Bangladesh ranks 162 out of 181 countries in the Notre Dame Adaptation Initiative Index, indicating high vulnerability levels and medium to low readiness to adapt to climate change(ND-GAIN 2021).

NAP has set its vision to reduce climate risks and vulnerability through effective adaptation strategies for fostering a resilient society, ecosystem and stimulating sustainable economic growth, six specific goals to achieve the vision. Twenty-two strategies to achieve twentysix possible outcomes. Eleven climate stress areas based on 14 climate stresses have also been identified. It proposed fifteen umbrella programs based on eleven climate stress areas, including institutional, mainstreaming, research, and capacity development. The first eleven programmes elaborated on stress areas, and the remaining four are for catalyzing conditions for adaptation. These programs will help implement 22 strategies and attain the expected outcomes to fulfill the set six NAP goals and eventually achieve the vision laid down for the NAP.

In the draft architecture of NAP preliminary funding

has been proposed about $84 billion for 27 years of implementation period till 13th five-year planning cycle for implementing fifteen high priority programs of which eleven programs are climate stress area-specific and four are catalytic condition, some programs are to be implemented mid to long term, and some are short term programs.

Funding is definitely an area for implementing the vision of NAP which is to reduce climate risks and vulnerability. Given this, risk modeling is the number one priority area; if we do not address the risk profile attracting finance would be difficult. Initially, for risk analysis eleven climate stress areas can be considered through a multi-hazard climate risk mapping, transitioning from this situation. To encourage the private sector

to come forward, detailed risk analysis will be required. So far, they are interested in mitigation; the solar power sector is an example. Adaptation is mainly considered to be addressed by the public sector. In this respect, financing will be an area of real challenge.

Bangladesh has been one of the climate risk vulnerable countries and a pioneer in preparing policies, strategies since 2005. Still, in the case of preparedness, we could not advance more; there is a need for an impact analysis of the earlier national strategies and planning; based on that NAP document could be finalized and prioritize the issues. Implication of climate change on health related issues is also very important; poor and marginal is often vulnerable to disease, and climate change may add to vulnerability causing a negative impact on poverty and livelihood.

Institutional preparedness is imperative, otherwise sustainability of our already achieved success will be in question. Infrastructural development is one of the government's priorities, to sustain the infrastructures from climate vulnerabilities considering the increase of temperature and rise of sea levels are coming up.

Another very important issue is the definitional issues in regard to climate finance. What is included in our national document has to be endorsed by the COP process; Bangladesh is one of the leaders in Climate action activities and trying to set the agenda for the rest of the countries, so the country's preparedness would need to be much better than others. NAP is definitely a valuable document. It needs to be fool-proof and endorsed at all stages of national development.

The writer is CEO of BUILD a Public Private Dialogue Platform. She can be contacted at [email protected]