In Tehran, oil revenues are more important than ideology now

Remarkable developments are shaping the relationship between energy and ideology in Iran. The intersection between these two dynamics lies in the Vienna talks aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major global powers, which would result in the lifting of sanctions.

The negotiations, which the parties had hoped to conclude with an agreement by the end of May, have stalled. But despite the impasse, thought to be caused by Tehran's insistence on the removal of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US list of designated terrorist organisations, they remain alive.

Indeed, the need for Iran's oil to offset the fallout from a new EU embargo on Russian oil has become a key consideration for all players in the Vienna talks, including Russia, after the war in Ukraine changed the rules of the game. The US administration needs fuel prices to be at a level that averts backlash from American voters prior to the mid-term elections in November, because many Americans judge their government at the fuel pump.

European governments are in dire need for Iran's oil, and are pressuring Washington to make concessions, reminding the Americans that Europe has met their call to ban Russia's oil and, soon, gas as well.

China, especially, will benefit from a deal in Vienna, in terms of Iranian oil flow.

As for Iran itself, it appears ready for interim arrangements that remove the sanctions and allow it to sell its oil to save its economy and calm its streets, where protests have raged in recent days. It has thus hinted that it may be willing to postpone a decision about its demand to delist the IRGC as part of a staggered agreement that gives priority to oil exports and the economy, yet without fully abandoning the core of the regime's ideology and the central position of the IRGC in it.

In such a scenario, Iran would not give up its demands, but could display some understanding of US President Joe Biden's circumstances in Congress when it comes to Washington’s designation of the IRGC (something that has become even harder for Mr Biden to backtrack on since he recently promised Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett it would not change). For this reason, there have been hints of Iranian consent to place contentious issues in a separate basket to discuss at a later stage, while a basket of priority issues are agreed now. These could include the commitment of the Biden administration to fully lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales, financial institutions and the Iranian Central Bank, in return for Iran freezing uranium enrichment, and perhaps complying with US insistence on better monitoring mechanisms led by the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Iranian nuclear programme.

The National