A review of the Conference of Parties (COP)-26

The UN Climate Change Conference normally referred to as COP-26 was held in Glasgow, Scotland from 31st October, to 13th November 2021. 197 countries along with 25000 delegates and experts met to review the implementation of the decision taken in COP-24 held in Katowice, Poland. 

The COP-24 aimed to bring together experts and influencers leading to the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) around the world for a series of high-level discussions on the interlinkage between 

climate and the 2030 agenda. The COP is the supreme decision-making body. The Glasgow Conference was chaired by the UK energy minister. The scheduled conference was delayed by a year due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. It was the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), ( a treaty that came into force in 1994), the 3rd meeting of Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 16th meeting of the Parties to the 2015 Kyoto Protocol. Bangladesh was represented at the conference by the Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, who played an active role and was elected one of the four key negotiators (as reported by BBC) who had been a key to the deal-making along with Xie Zhenhua, Ayman Shasly and Teresa Ribera.

The conference was the first since the Paris Agreement of COP-21 that expected Parties to make an enhanced commitment toward mitigating climate change (reduction in global temperature). The Paris Agreement required Parties to carry out a process known as the “ratchet mechanism” every 5 years to provide improved national pledges. For our readers let me write something about the Paris Agreement and then we shall go to the review of the COP-26.

The Paris Agreement often referred to as the Paris Accords or Paris Climate Accords is an International Treaty on climate change adopted in 2015. It covers change mitigation, adaptation and finance. It has been effective from 4th November 2016. The agreement aimed to reduce carbon emissions to Net Zero. It also aimed to strengthen countries’ ability to deal with the impact of carbon change and support them in their efforts. At that time 193 member countries (192 Parties + EU) participated. The Paris Agreement was part of the process dating back to the 1992, Earth Summit in Rio-de- Janeiro, Brazil, where countries initially joined the International Treaty called UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Sensing the need to strengthen emission reduction, in 1997, countries adopted the Kyoto Protocol, which legally bound developed countries to an emission reduction target. However, the agreement was widely believed to be ineffective because the world’s top carbon dioxide emitting countries, China and the US chose not to participate. China, a developing country was not bound by Kyoto Protocol and the US used this China issue to justify non-participation. At the 18th COP held in Doha, Qatar, in 2012, delegates agreed to extend Kyoto Protocol until 2020. The delegates at the COP-18 agreed to create a new comprehensive legally binding climate treaty by 2015 that would require all countries including major carbon emitters (not abiding by the Kyoto Protocol) to limit and reduce their emissions of carbon–dioxide and greenhouse gases. As a result, the Paris Agreement came into being. However, the Paris Agreement failed to deliver what was expected because of the “Free Rider” problem. The “Free Rider” problem stemmed from the fact that countries would enjoy the benefits of global efforts to limit emissions regardless of their contribution to financing the action programmes to reduce emissions. 

In this regard, economists view that International Accord, which depends on collective action, does not include the kind of incentives and penalties that would ensure countries do their part.

The result of COP-26 known as the Glasgow Climate Pact was negotiated through consensus of the representatives of 197 attending parties. Due to late intervention from India and China that weakened a move to end coal power and fossil fuel subsidies, the conference ended with the adoption of a less stringent resolution than anticipated. Nevertheless, the pact was the first climate deal to reduce the use of coal. The pact included wording that encouraged greenhouse gas cuts and promised more climate finance for developing countries to adapt to climate change.

Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Conference was postponed for a year and was rescheduled for 31st October to 13th November 2021. It was indicated at the Conference that economic reopening would be an opportunity to shape the 21st-century economy in ways that are clean, green, healthy, safe and more resilient.

The world leaders’ summit was on 1st and 2nd November 2021 with each leader giving a national statement. Bangladesh made a national statement to let the world know our stand on the issues. At the summit, China stated that it aims to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and to become carbon neutral by 2060. However, it was asked to set a clear date as that would have a positive impact on the Paris Agreement target. 

Negotiated issues 

Deforestation: Leaders of more than 100 countries with around 85 per cent of the world’s forests including Canada, Russia, The Democratic Republic of Congo and the US agreed to end deforestation by 2030, improving on a similar agreement made in 2014 at the New York Declaration on forests. Signatories of the pledge made in 2014 reiterated to half deforestation by 2020 and end it by 2030. However, between 2014 to 2020 deforestation increased.

Article -6 of the Paris Agreement which describes rules for an International Carbon market and other forms of international cooperation has been discussed. Although the Parties have agreed in principle to avoid double counting of emission reduction across more than one country’s greenhouse gas inventory, exactly how much double counting occurs remains unclear.

Finance: Climate financing for adaptation and mitigation was one of the principles of negotiation. Poor countries wanted more money for adaptation whereas donors prefer to finance mitigation as that has a chance of making a profit.$100 billion was pledged in the Paris Agreement annually to finance by 2020 for developing countries. However, rich countries failed to live up to the pledged figure. Now it appeared that this could not be fulfilled even before 2023.

Coal issue: National leaders were urged to take necessary steps to reduce coal-fired emissions, mobilize funding and boost adaptation and resilience. Countries were being asked to come forward with an ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target that aligns with reaching Net Zero by the middle of the century. South Africa was set to receive $8.5 billion to end its reliance on coal. Countries like Chile, Poland, Ukraine, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam agreed to phase out coal by 2030 for major economies and 2040 for poor nations. To achieve the target, developed countries need to make good on the promise to mobilize at least $100 billion in climate financing per year for developing countries. Parties set the target based on Paris Agreement to keep global warming to under 1.5 C by the 21st century.

UNFP hoped to see COP-26 would result in increased global action on three fronts, mitigation, adaptation and finance. 

Methane gas issue

Action to control Methane gas has been discussed as the gas has the potential of contributing to global warming by more than 80 times that of carbon dioxide. It stays in the atmosphere for 12 years far less than carbon dioxide. A question has now been raised ‘Was it too late? Could anything be done?’

 The issue was discussed and it was concluded that it had not been too late. It is not a future problem rather it is a current one. To stand a change in global warming to 1.5C in the next 8 years would be crucial. Greenhouse gas needed to be halved. Temperature increase approaching to 2.7C would be a disaster to humanity and many of the planet’s species. In this respect, one interesting thing has been noticed. The covid-19 pandemic has led to a 5.4 per cent fall in global CO2 in 2020. But that was a temporary phenomenon. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 6 per cent in 2021 to 36.3 billion tonnes, their highest ever level, as the world economy rebounded strongly from the Covid-19 crisis and relied heavily on coal to power that growth. Thus pushing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to the highest it has been in the last 2 million years.  

COP -26 was the fruit of intense negotiations among almost 200 countries over many months and constant engagement, both in person and virtually for nearly two years. The approved texts were a compromise. They reflect the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will in the world today. They took important steps, but unfortunately, the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions. However, COP-26 did produce new ‘building blocks’ to advance the implementation of the Paris Agreement through the action that could get the world on a more sustainable low carbon pathway.

The writer is former Director General of EPB. He can be contacted at hassan.youngconsultants@gmail.com