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Correlation between oil and currency

Alan Farley
14 Aug 2022 00:00:00 | Update: 14 Aug 2022 01:02:31
Correlation between oil and currency

There is a hidden string that ties currencies to crude oil. Price actions in one venue force a sympathetic or opposing reaction in the other. This correlation persists for many reasons, including resource distribution, the balance of trade (BOT), and market psychology. There's also crude oil’s significant contribution to inflationary and deflationary pressures that intensifies these interrelationships during strongly trending periods—both to the upside and to the downside.

Crude oil is quoted in U.S. dollars (USD). Countries that import oil pay for it in the greenback. Similarly, those that export the commodity receive payment in USD. This system dates back to the early 1970s after the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard. This period saw the rise of the petrodollar system, which promoted the U.S. dollar's rise as the world's reserve currency. Oil producers and purchasers use this system to trade in the commodity in U.S. dollars. Each uptick and downtick in the dollar or in the price of the commodity generates an immediate realignment between the greenback and numerous forex crosses. These movements are less correlated in nations without significant crude oil reserves, like Japan, and more correlated in nations that have significant reserves like Canada, Russia, and Brazil.

Many nations leveraged their crude oil reserves during the energy market’s historic rise between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, borrowing heavily to build infrastructure, expand military operations, and initiate social programs.

Those bills came due after the 2008 economic collapse, where some countries deleveraged while others doubled down, borrowing more heavily against reserves to restore trust and trajectory to their wounded economies. 

 

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