Sheikh Hasina’s India visit and expectations

On the second day of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s just concluded a four-day state visit to India at the invitation of her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi seven MoUs were exchanged between Bangladesh and India in presence of the two premiers of both countries.

Earlier it has been agreed to discuss issues related to security cooperation, investment, enhanced trade relations, power and energy sector cooperation, water sharing of common rivers, water resources management, border management, combating drug smuggling and human trafficking get priority during the talks between PM Hasina and her Indian counterpart Modi, officials said and signed seven MOU during the visit of Prime Minister of Bangladesh to India. These are – MoU on withdrawal of 153 cusec water from Kushiyara River by Bangladesh under Upper Surma-Kushiyara Project, Sylhet via Rahmipur, MoU on Scientific Cooperation between Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India and Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (BCSIR), MoU between National Judicial Academy, Bhopal, India and Supreme Court of Bangladesh, MoU between Ministry of Railways, India and Bangladesh Railway for the training of Bangladesh Railway personnel at the training Institutes of Indian Railway, MoU between Ministry of Railways, India and Bangladesh Railway for collaboration for IT solutions for Bangladesh Railway, MoU between Prasar Bharati and Bangladesh Television and MoU on cooperation in the areas of Space Technology.

Meanwhile, State Minister for Foreign Affairs Md. Shahriar Alam said the Bangladesh premier told her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, that repatriation is the only solution to the Rohingya issue and asked for help to that end. He was briefing journalists at Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi about the PM’s India visit. Shahriar Alam further said that Bangladesh is keen to buy diesel, gas and power from India and enhance energy cooperation. Foreign Secretary, PM’s Press Secretary, and Bangladesh High Commissioner to India, among others, were present.

In a separate briefing to the media at the external affairs ministry, the Indian Foreign Secretary said Hasina sought assurances from India on the supply of perishable commodities and also about the pipeline that will supply high-speed diesel to northern Bangladesh.

Mentioning that terrorism and radicalization pose a security threat to both India and Bangladesh, he said the two leaders held comprehensive talks on how to improve cooperation on the issue.

Bangladesh has not been very not very keen on any bilateral and multilateral free trade agreement risking the economy and trade after graduation from LDC status. But it decided to start negotiation for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India. India currently has 12 FTAs and India-UAE CEPA is the latest one. India signed an FTA with its seven South Asian neighbours (Safta) in 2006.

In 2011, it signed separate FTAs with South Korea, Japan, and the 10 countries that comprise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). After the withdrawal from RCEP, India is looking forward to making several bilateral FTAs with its neighbouring countries. CEPA will grow bilateral trade, and the trading regime between the two countries, including imports, exports, and related rules and regulations, will get new momentum as the agreement has instruments for them to work jointly on trade, supply chain, and production. If the CEPA is operationalized, bilateral trade potential would be USD 40 billion. Notably, the talks on a CEPA began informally in 2018, against the backdrop of increasing Chinese investments in Bangladesh. CEPA may impact Bangladesh’s import duties. Reciprocity should be maintained while striking the deal.

In the meantime, Indian conglomerate Adani plans to start exporting electricity from a coal-fired plant in eastern India to Bangladesh from December. Adani Power Ltd will commission a 1.6-gigawatt facility in Jharkhand state and a dedicated transmission line for the exports by 16 December, Adani said in a Twitter post late on Monday after meeting Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi. As per the agreement signed in 2017, Adani Power would supply 1,496 MW of electricity for 25 years from December 2021. Unfortunately, Bangladesh will pay a huge amount as capacity charges due to delays in transmission lines in India.

The agreement with Adani is seemingly not favourable for Bangladesh. It will pay around $11.01 billion for importing 1,496 megawatts (MW) of electricity from Adani Godda 1,600 MW Thermal Power Plant over its 25 years lifetime revealed a report co-published by the Bangladesh Working Group on External Debt (BWGED) and Indian Growthwatch.

A capacity charge is a penalty paid to the plant owner for failure to buy a certain portion of power readily available. It may be note that three Padma Bridges, nine Karnaphuli River Tunnels or four metro rails: is how many mega infrastructures Bangladesh can build with the money it is paying to the Indian Adani Group as capacity payment under a power purchase agreement (PPA). Indian newspaper The Financial Express mentioned that the project underscores India’s push to use infrastructure as part of its diplomatic outreach to neighbours.

Regarding the withdrawal of water from common rivers, an MoU on Kushiyara is the first such pact in 26 years since the Ganges water treaty was signed in 1996. Bangladesh, which shares 54 rivers with India, has got its top priority issue – Teesta water sharing – unresolved for nearly a decade for, as cited by India, strong opposition from its West Bengal state’s Chief Minister. The details of the Kushiyara agreement the statistic of water flow and other issues are yet to be disclosed to the media or not yet placed in the parliament.

The other issues like energy issues, including the import of diesel from India and grid connectivity for the supply of electricity from Nepal and Bhutan, were discussed in the bilateral meeting without any progress on the matters, officials said. Nothing, however, was said officially about the border killing issue being raised in the talks.

Terming the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India as a ‘role model’ for neighbourhood diplomacy, Sheikh Hasina hoped that all the outstanding issues, including the Teesta water-sharing treaty, would be resolved soon likewise many issues solved earlier ‘in the spirit of friendship and cooperation. ‘I reiterated that India is the most important and closest neighbour of Bangladesh. Bangladesh-India bilateral relations are known to be a role model for neighbourhood diplomacy,’ BSS reported quoting the Bangladesh PM as saying in a statement issued after the talks with her Indian counterpart.

Former ambassador M Humayun Kabir said that he did not find any specific commitment on trade and energy cooperation, like the supply of diesel and essential commodities, as expected. ‘We do not see any specific commitment on issues in keeping with the expectations of the people. Energy is a very important issue, but there is nothing concrete on it so far,’ he said, adding that CEPA among other issues was discussed in the meeting without any concrete outcome.

Finally, Bangladesh and India have agreed to collaborate in new areas of cooperation like environment, climate change, cyber security, ICT, space technology, green energy and blue economy.

This was stated in a 31-para joint statement released today on September 7, 2022, after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina held comprehensive talks with her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in New Delhi on the second day of her four-day state visit to India. Moreover, the Indian counterpart assured that India will allow toll-free transit to Nepal and Bhutan subject to some terms and conditions.

The two countries resolved many outstanding issues in the spirit of friendship and cooperation, and we expressed hope for settling all outstanding issues, including the signing of the Teesta Water Sharing Treaty, at the earliest and the water sharing of 54 common rivers, including the Teesta. India may kindly withdraw anti-dumping duty on Jute, Hydrogen peroxide and other products and stop border killing at an early date in the spirit of friendship.

The writer is Non-Government Adviser, Bangladesh Competition Commission. He can be contacted at mssiddiqui2035@gmail.com