The Russians are coming – and that’s OK

In one of Hollywood’s more successful 1960s comedies, a Soviet submarine runs aground near a small New England island and its leaders come ashore in search of assistance. With the casting of the soft-spoken Alan Arkin, raised in a Russian Jewish household in real life, as Soviet captain Rozanov, one might have guessed that these visitors meant no harm.

But like all Americans of that period, the islanders had been raised on Cold War-era fears of a nuclear-armed Soviet menace, and they respond with panicked hysteria. Soon the town drunk is galloping across the island shouting: “The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming” – the film’s title and a reference to the American Revolution hero Paul Revere’s storied midnight ride.

The good folks of Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia would be forgiven for invoking this same refrain in recent days, as some 300,000 Russians, mostly men, are thought to have fled the country since Moscow enacted a military mobilisation.

The vast majority have gone to countries that do not require visas, such as Georgia, Kazakhstan and Turkey. But the EU has also seen a spike in Russian arrivals, reviving the prickly debate about whether it should ban the entry of Russian citizens.

The initial, Ukraine-led push for an EU ban on Russian visas was sparked by several run-ins this past summer.

In Warsaw, a drunk Russian tourist shouted obscenities at locals and made lewd gestures, then squared off with a couple of men and took a few wild swings before paramedics wrestled him to the ground. Two weeks later, a Russian woman reportedly struck a Ukrainian girl – resulting, again, in no injuries – on a Vienna-Valencia flight.

In August, EU foreign ministers held off on a full ban and agreed to a compromise measure – suspending a 2007 visa deal with Russia and making it harder for Russians to get visas due to more paperwork and higher fees.

The Biden administration has also come out against a blanket ban, preferring to delineate between Russia’s government and its citizens and avoid closing off exit pathways for regime foes. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia took this concern into consideration last month when they put in place a regional tourist ban that makes exceptions for truck drivers, dissidents and relatives of EU residence permit holders.

On Friday, Finland followed suit and closed Russians’ last available land route to the EU.

That same day, the EU put stricter measures in place. Now, if a draft-dodging Russian plans to stay more than 90 days, the visa will be denied. This mainly means Russians cannot give conscription avoidance as their reason for EU entry, but must instead apply for asylum.

Also, Russians can now only apply for EU visas while in Russia, not from a third country, such as Georgia. And lastly, EU border officials will more carefully assess Russians looking to enter and if the applicant could pose a security threat entry will be denied, even if they hold a valid Schengen visa. This seems wise, as top terrorism analysts have begun warning of attacks by pro-Russian partisans on western soil, in particular against Nato shipments.

But the matter is far from settled, and EU leaders are expected to discuss it further at this month’s summit in Brussels. One possible tweak is that EU member states that have bans in place allow Russian citizens to transit through their country to reach EU countries willing to accept Russians. France, Germany and European Council President Charles Michel have made clear their view that the EU should allow Russian arrivals. But Kyiv and several of its allies take a different stance.

“Russians fleeing mobilisation are not anti-war activists,” the explanatory pro-Ukraine platform Ukraine Explainers said on Twitter last week. “The vast majority remained silent for 7 months.” Rather than running, the thread continued, it was time for Russians to stand up and voice opposition to their government.

The National