Liz Truss’s policy U-turn

British Conservatives used to boast that they were the "world’s most successful political party", and with good reason. The Economist magazine congratulated Boris Johnson’s general election victory in December 2019 by noting that "the Conservative Party has been in the business of winning elections since the 1830s". Throughout the 19th century, they fought with the Liberals, but by the 20th century the Liberal party faded away. Then, as The Economist noted: "In the 20th century the Conservatives held office for longer than any other party. In the 21st century they are on course to hold power, either in their own right or as the dominant partner in a coalition, for 14 of the first 24 years. Not bad for an outfit that John Stuart Mill dismissed as 'the stupid party'."

But now Mill, that great English philosopher, might be looking down from heaven with a smile of vindication on his lips. After one month of the leadership of Prime Minister Liz Truss, the "world’s most successful political party" is in meltdown. It has, as Mill suggested, performed stupidly. The Truss government, most notably Chancellor of Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, has tanked the British economy, crashed the pound, and the latest opinion polls suggest the Conservative party would not merely lose a general election but be annihilated, reduced to a handful of seats. On Sunday, Truss said she stood firmly behind her policy of tax cuts for the most wealthy. Recently Kwarteng abandoned the policy in a screeching U-turn. An election might not take place until 2024, yet the self-inflicted wounds of confused Conservatives are on display during their annual conference this week in Birmingham.

It is impossible to predict what happens next. That’s because Conservative MPs theelves do not know. Should they – could they? – take the huge risk of unseating yet another failed leader and replace Truss in another tedious episode of the Conservative party psychodrama? Could they change the rules and install Rishi Sunak, Truss's rival and defeated leadership candidate, without another vote of party members? Would it be better to stick with Truss and hope that somehow she learns from her mistakes?

Historically the Conservatives proved successful by balancing two competing characteristics – public loyalty to leaders and utter ruthlessness in getting rid of them. David Maxwell-Fyfe, a Conservative minister in the 1940s and 50s, boasted that the Tory party’s “secret weapon” was loyalty. He discovered otherwise when prime minister Harold Macmillan dismissed him and several other ministers in what was called the "night of the long knives". Johnson was equally ruthless in punishing 21 Brexit rebels from his own party, most of whom are no longer MPs. So, might Truss perhaps dismiss Kwarteng, a friend of hers whose disastrous mini-budget (agreed with Truss herself) created the current crisis? Or should she hope that, having reversed the politically toxic tax cuts for the wealthy amid austerity for everyone else, the markets will react favourably and she might live to fight another day?

The trouble is that hope is not a strategy. Even the most loyal Conservative MPs now see Truss and Kwarteng less as leaders and more as liabilities. The not-so-secret plotting will continue. So, almost certainly, will the political turmoil and unforced errors.

It is impossible to predict what happens next. That’s because Conservative MPs theelves do not know. Should they – could they? – take the huge risk of unseating yet another failed leader and replace Truss in another tedious episode of the Conservative party psychodrama? Could they change the rules and install Rishi Sunak, Truss's rival and defeated leadership candidate, without another vote of party members? Would it be better to stick with Truss and hope that somehow she learns from her mistakes?

Historically the Conservatives proved successful by balancing two competing characteristics – public loyalty to leaders and utter ruthlessness in getting rid of them. David Maxwell-Fyfe, a Conservative minister in the 1940s and 50s, boasted that the Tory party’s “secret weapon” was loyalty. He discovered otherwise when prime minister Harold Macmillan dismissed him and several other ministers in what was called the "night of the long knives". Johnson was equally ruthless in punishing 21 Brexit rebels from his own party, most of whom are no longer MPs. So, might Truss perhaps dismiss Kwarteng, a friend of hers whose disastrous mini-budget (agreed with Truss herself) created the current crisis?

The National