America remains confident of dealing with a changing Middle East

In recent weeks, decision-makers in Washington have conveyed to me the confidence being felt inside the US's two main political parties in America's ability to provide exceptional leadership to the emerging global order.

This order excludes Russia as a result of the Ukraine war and the radical military, political and energy paradigm shift taking place in Europe. It is helmed by an American leadership that they believe China won’t be able to thwart. This leadership embraces Europe, engages with India and Australia, and speaks in a pragmatic language in the Middle East in light of a number of developments across the region.

Despite the sharp rivalry between Republicans and the Democrats, particularly ahead of the mid-term election on November 3, there are signs of shared views on a range of foreign policy issues, from the rivalry with China and the geopolitical landscape arising from the Ukraine war, to relations with the Arab states and Iran.

Even though the Saudi-led Opec+ decision to cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day caused furore in Washington, it is clear that the two sides have decided to not make any hasty moves, instead taking practical and careful steps to preserve their strategic relations.

The Opec+ announcement gave the impression to Washington that the member states were siding with Moscow amid the ongoing stand-off between the two powers. This impression angered both Republicans and Democrats in Congress albeit to varying degrees and prompted the Biden administration to talk about "re-evaluating" US-Saudi relations.

What the Biden administration has done to contain the crisis is to do nothing of the sort. For its part, Riyadh has moved to smooth things over by condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine in international forums and offering $400 million to Kyiv, for which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the kingdom.

The de-escalation has encouraged the two sides to start a necessary conversation about the need for a more institutionalised and transparent bilateral relationship that transcends emotional reactions and mutual doubts. Senior members in the Biden administration have talked about having been “forced” by the shared outrage in Congress to adopt retaliatory positions.

The impression that Saudi Arabia sided with Russia against the US, and the timing of it, is a source of concern for the Biden administration, which realises that the already sharp electoral battle could be stoked further if this issue plays out publicly against the Democratic Party. In terms of substance, the administration is aware that it may have overreacted, especially since it doesn't oppose a behind-the-scenes role for the Gulf states to influence Moscow's policy.

Practically speaking, as the big crisis is set to come in December when the full European embargo on Russian energy – which the Biden administration hasn't strongly supported – comes into effect, the US and Saudi Arabia will take measures in the oil markets as part of their efforts to repair relations. What Washington cares about strategically is dissuading Saudi Arabia from deepening its relations with China. Issues like oil production are more tactical than strategic, despite their importance.

The National