Reflections on Vision 2041

To live with a dream or vision brings dynamism to a nation. It helps in understanding the potentialities and promises in a canvas with a roadmap in the long run. The historic Vision 2041 is a continuation of vision 2021 and aims to reach the GDP target of USD 2.5 trillion with a per capita income of USD 10,000.

The National Economic Council, chaired by Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, is the architect that includes several goals and reform strategies for long-term economic development. The Perspective Plan 2021-2041 gives a blueprint of the priorities and strategies for achieving the broad objectives of an economy free from poverty, equity in income distribution, and inclusive growth.

This document catalogs the development vision of a prosperous Bangladesh, a strategic description of the goals and objectives, and a roadmap for its implementation. “The institutional basis of this plan is fourfold: good governance, democratization, decentralization, and capacity building. The main beneficiaries will be the people of Bangladesh, who will be the key driving force of growth and transformation. ”

Bangladesh indeed crossed many milestones on the social and economic front during the three decades of challenging and uninterrupted growth. The country fulfilled most of the MDGs, achieved the lower middle-income country status by 2015, and fulfilled the threshold criteria for graduating from the Least Developed Country [LDCs] to a developing country by 2026. Vision 2041 has three pillars; end absolute poverty, graduate into higher middle-income country status by 2031, and eradicate poverty on the way to becoming a developed country by 2041.

The 20 -year strategy may be ambitious on specific criteria such as GDP growth in the neighborhood of 10 percent, GDP-investment ratio in the vicinity of 46 percent, and GDP-tax ratio of 22 percent. Given a conducive environment in global economic growth, the GDP growth projection could be attainable once the mega projects on physical infrastructure are operational and the economy attains robustness through sound institutional artifacts, a prerequisite in achieving SDGs.

The stagnating GDP-investment ratio and the GDP-tax ratio during the last decade warrant bold steps in fulfilling the targets. The current per capita income in the USD 2000 may be another constraint. The five-fold increase in GDP that could bring in tandem with the five folds increase in per capita GDP may appear daunting for graduation to developed country status. With current GDP of about USD 500 billion, the fivefold increase represents USD 2.5 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of France at the current price.

The next five years may be challenging for Bangladesh to enter the trillion-dollar club and be among the first twenty countries of the world in GDP, ranking from the current ranking of thirty-fifth in nominal GDP and twenty-fifth in PPP.

The starting point of the visionary is the story of a person called Wang, who moved for better economic opportunities to Shenzhen in 2012 from a remote village in China. Shenzhen is a global center in technology, a manufacturing hub of flourishing business and finance, and houses the world’s fourth largest business port.

Wang started a job in an assembly plant for iPhones and could augment his income initially fivefold from his meager income of USD 100 in his village. His income is now USD 2000, and this episode may be substantiated for 1.3 million workers. The reliability of this story is easy to link to the current GDP of China.

The GDP of China is over USD 20 trillion in current market price as compared to USD 8.5 trillion in 2012. Simple math dictates that in 20 years, the GDP could be fivefold in twenty years. The GDP of china is projected to be USD 28 trillion in 2026, against USD 30 trillion in the USA.

The reference to phenomenal growth in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore asserts the growth philosophy of Robert Solow, a Nobel Laureate from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Solow’s pioneering work on growth morphology rests on the endogeneity hidden in investment, technology, and human capital. Appropriate and need-based education is the only effective instrument of vhuman capital.

The three ingredients of growth are an investment, technology, and skilled human resources. Bangladesh lacks the human capital that propels development; technology is mobile and accessible. Foreign Direct Investment also facilitates the transfer of technology. However, Bangladesh would be a laggard nation in the race if the education spectrum is not remodeled in the structure of Western style and semblance with the other countries in the OECD Club.

The reference to the Social Mobility Index 2020 deplorable ranking of 78 out of 82 countries of Bangladesh warrants scrutiny by policymakers. Social mobility evaluates a child’s ability to experience a better life than their parents. In contrast, relative social mobility examines how an individual’s socio-economic circumstance inherited at birth has affected their outcome in life.

Thus, social mobility is an effective vehicle for reducing income inequality in society and ensuring inclusive growth. Designed by the World Economic Forum, the index suggests that government should “ensure a level playing field not just because it is the right thing to do, but it can benefit their economies.” An improvement in social mobility by 10 points accelerates the GDP growth by 4.4 percent by 2030.

There is enough scope to address the issue on a priority basis on social mobility to attain sustainability and resilience in development, as Bangladesh scored 40 out of 100. Denmark is the first country with 80 points. Educational differences are one reason why the impact of growth on poverty is five times greater in Kerala than in Bihar.

The international scale of some of the higher academic institutions by reputable research organizations manifests banality with innovation. A single higher educational institution could not be within the first hundred academic institutions in the global matrix during the last fifty years of statehood—the quality of education matters for sustainable growth.

[This paper is based on the deliberation of Vincent Chang, Vice Chancellor of the BRAC University in the orientation programme]

The writer teaches at BRAC University and BIDS as an adjunct Faculty in the Master's Programme in Economics. He can be contacted at [email protected]