Defending multilateralism as Indonesia passes the G20 baton

As the tectonic plates of the global balance of power are shifting, leaving a widening fault line in the international order, some countries face both the onerous challenge and unparalleled opportunity to build bridges. The countries that find themselves in this position are middle-powers.

These are countries whose unilateral actions cannot project economic or military power on a global scale, but who are large enough to exert influence. It is fortuitous that the three G20 presidencies after Indonesia fall again on middle-power countries, namely India, Brazil and South Africa.

The success of the 2022 G20 Bali Summit shows that the G20 is a process that enables middle-power countries to be fully integrated into the global system. Through the G20 process, they play a critical role in reshaping global geopolitics by brokering deals among superpowers and warring countries. They have become regional powers who are determined ‘to be at the table and not in the menu’.

Indonesia has set a high bar for the next G20 presidencies.  The troika structure of the G20 Summit — where past, current and future G20 hosts consult with one another regarding the Summit agenda to ensure continuity — provides opportunities to carry forward a sustained agenda. This ensures that the mutual concerns and interests among emerging markets and developing economies are discussed at upcoming G20 summits. There are five agenda topics that middle-power countries should use the next few G20 summits to address.

The first is to build mutually beneficial bridges across the US–China economic rivalry by using the G20 as a platform for discussions, working relations, cooperation and personal networking among leaders. This will help mitigate the US–China trade war, supply chain fragmentation and technological bifurcation — all of which will create higher inflation globally.

Global value chains of production and service networks between the United States, China and emerging markets and developing economies are key to securing stable geoeconomics amid geopolitical tension. Multilateralism is rooted in the deep belief that all countries must work together to supply each other’s demand.

Many middle-power countries also understand very well that their largest trading partners are not necessarily, and do not have to be, their closest political allies, and they will continue to use their agency to actively make sure that they are not being pushed to take sides.

The second is to call for more extraordinary actions to improve global health infrastructure, including investment in the Pandemic Fund — a joint initiative between the G20 Ministers of Health and Finance to prepare better for future pandemics.  The Indonesia G20 Presidency collected US$1.4 billion but the G20 High Level Independent Panel estimated an annual financing gap in pandemic preparedness, prevention and response of approximately US$10 billion.

India, Brazil and Indonesia were among the hardest hit by COVID-19. India and South Africa were also countries that fought for COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property rights to be waived for low- and middle-income countries during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Discussions and negotiations on this issue should continue at the G20.

The third is to reaffirm commitments on the climate crisis, climate justice, global climate funds and easy access to green technologies — ensuring the transition to greener energy with minimal social and economic impacts, especially for emerging markets and developing economies that are still industrialising.

EastAsia Forum