Commodities: The Portfolio Hedge

Most people picture a trading floor at a futures exchange as a scene of utter chaos, with fierce shouting matches, frantic hand signals, and high-strung traders jockeying to get their orders executed, which is not too far from the truth. These markets are where buyers and sellers come together to trade an ever-expanding list of commodities. That list today includes agricultural goods, metals and petroleum, and products such as financial instruments, foreign currencies, and stock indexes that trade on a commodity exchange.

At the centre of this supposed disorder are products that offer a haven of sorts—a hedge against inflation. Because commodities prices typically rise when inflation is accelerating, they offer protection from the effects of inflation. Few assets benefit from rising inflation, particularly unexpected inflation, but commodities usually do. As the demand for goods and services increases, the price of goods and services rises as does the price of the commodities used to produce those goods and services. Futures markets are thus used as continuous auction markets and as clearinghouses for the latest information on supply and demand.

Commodities are goods that are more or less uniform in quality and utility regardless of their source. For instance, when shoppers buy an ear of corn or a bag of wheat flour at a supermarket, most don't pay much attention to where they were grown or milled. Commodity goods are interchangeable, and by that broad definition, a whole host of products where people don't particularly care about the brand could potentially qualify as commodities. Investors tend to take a more specific view, most often referring to a select group of basic goods that are in demand across the globe. Many commodities that investors focus on are raw materials for manufactured finished goods.

Investors break down commodities into two categories: hard and soft. Hard commodities require mining or drilling, such as metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, and energy products like crude oil, natural gas, and unleaded gasoline. Soft commodities refer to things that are grown or ranched, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and cattle.

Benchmarking your portfolio performance is crucial because it allows you to gauge your risk tolerance and expectations for return. More importantly, benchmarking provides a basis for a comparison of your portfolio performance with the rest of the market.

For commodities, the S&P GSCI Total Return Index is considered a broad commodity index and a good benchmark. It holds all futures contracts for commodities such as oil, wheat, corn, aluminum, live cattle, and gold.

Supply-and-demand dynamics are the main reason commodity prices change. When there's a big harvest of a certain crop, its price usually goes down, while drought conditions can make prices rise from fears that future supplies will be smaller than expected. Similarly, when the weather is cold, demand for natural gas for heating purposes often makes prices rise, while a warm spell during the winter months can depress prices.

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