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Middle powers grappling with US-China rivalry could follow Vietnam’s example

Richard Heydarian
09 May 2023 00:00:00 | Update: 08 May 2023 23:41:49
Middle powers grappling with US-China rivalry could follow Vietnam’s example

“We should pursue] long-term stability, future orientation, good-neighbourly friendship and comprehensive co-operation”, declared Chinese leader Xi Jinping during his meeting with visiting Vietnamese dignitary Truong Thi Mai in Beijing in late April. China and Vietnam, Mr Xi added, should remain “good neighbours, good friends, good comrades and good partners” in a new brave world.

Truong Thi Mai was no ordinary guest. She is Vietnam’s first woman to become a permanent member of the all-powerful Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) in almost half a century. What’s even more poignant, however, was the timing of her visit to Beijing.

It came barely a week after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Hanoi to mark the 10th anniversary of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries as part of broader efforts to seal a de facto alliance with Vietnam. Back in 2021, Vietnam also made a similar manoeuvre, when Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh held a high-profile meeting with a special Chinese envoy, Xiong Bo, barely a day before hosting the US Vice President Kamala Harris in Hanoi. The message was unmistakable.

Time and again, the Southeast Asian nation has signalled its unwillingness to side with either of the two superpowers in the Indo-Pacific. To enhance its room for manoeuvre, Vietnam has actively pursued strategic co-operation with “middle powers” from Japan and South Korea to India, Russia and Europe in recent years. The upshot is the emergence of Vietnam as a global economic dynamo and a full-fledged regional power in Southeast Asia. Vietnam’s successful “multi-alignment” strategy holds valuable lessons for nations around the world, including in the Middle East, where regional powers are deftly navigating relations with multiple superpowers.

The emergence of contemporary Vietnam, built on the ruins of multiple ancient kingdoms, has few parallels anywhere in the world. From its millennia-old struggle with imperial China, to its defeat of Mongol forces in the Middle Ages, a relentless struggle for autonomy has defined Vietnam’s strategic history. If anything, the 20th century proved even more traumatic, as the Southeast Asian nation had to fend off not one, but multiple empires, beginning with colonial France and, shortly after, the Americans.

Just as important to understanding Vietnam’s national psyche, however, is its rollercoaster relations with neighbouring China. Chinese revolutionary communist leader Mao Zedong not only dispatched his finest generals, but also personally oversaw China’s assistance to Vietnamese communist forces’ successful campaigns against colonial France. By 1951, the Vietnamese communists adopted Maoism as a pillar of “the basic theory” of their party.

It didn’t take long, however, before bilateral relations soured, especially as Beijing began to explore a detente with the West in order to confront the Soviet Union, a key patron of Vietnam at the time. The upshot was the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war, as both Hanoi and Beijing backed competing forces in the broader Indo-China conflict in the twilight decades of the 20th century.

Just as relevant is also Hanoi’s fear of abandonment, which reached its apogee in the late-1970s and throughout the 1980s, when an increasingly enfeebled Soviet Union, then fully embroiled in the Afghan War, struggled to aid its Vietnamese allies. Embittered by such traumatic history, post-Cold War Vietnam embraced a self-consciously “non-aligned” foreign policy posture.

Under the so-called “Four No’s” doctrine, Hanoi shunned, first, siding with any superpower against the other; second, hosting any foreign troops; third, negotiating a mutual defence pact with any foreign power; and fourth, deploying force to achieve foreign policy goals. Meanwhile, Vietnam adopted post-war reforms to rebuild the country through expanded trade and investment with the world.

Over the past two decades, Vietnam has carefully sought to leverage relations with multiple powers to maintain its autonomy. Two of its modern challenges include growing trade dependence on China and festering maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

The National

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