Lula’s diplomatic dance nothing new

In April, the leftist leader was being courted by China during a high-profile visit to Beijing. That was followed a month later with an invite to the G7 summit in Japan, where Lula rubbed shoulders with leaders of the largest economies of the so-called Global North. In recent weeks Brazil’s president has also been busy restoring regional ties in Latin America and pushing a proposed path to peace in Ukraine.

Lula’s diplomatic whirlwind has confounded his critics. He has been accused of “cozying up” with the United States’ enemies or “playing both sides” over Ukraine.

But as a scholar of Brazil and its position in the world, I believe Lula’s actions reflect two main elements: one relating to global geopolitical developments, the other tied to the Brazilian leader’s long-held vision.

The rise of China and the war in Ukraine have underscored that the unipolar reality of the 1990s – under which the U.S. was the predominant power – is being seriously challenged. In its place appears to be emerging a bipolar dynamic in which Beijing and Washington battle for influence – or a multipolar world in which regional powers compete for hegemony.

Anticipating this new world ordering, nations that have historically aligned with the European-U.S. center of power – particularly those in places like Latin America – are repositioning themselves. This seems to be the case for Brazil, the largest nation and economy in South America.

During much of the 20th century, Brazil developed in close economic cooperation with the U.S. while managing to sustain a largely autonomous foreign policy.

But since 2001, U.S. influence in Brazil has diminished as Washington has pivoted its attentions away from the region to first the Middle East and then Asia. In the same period, China replaced the United States as Brazil’s most important economic partner. Figures from 2021 show China received 31 per cent of Brazilian exports compared with the United States’ 11.2 per cent, and supplied 22.8 per cent of its imports, compared with the United States’ 17.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, Lula’s return to the presidency in January 2023 has paved the way for a revival of an ambitious and assertive foreign policy set out by the leader during his first term in office between 2003 and 2010.

During this earlier period, the metalworker-turned-president managed to sustain good relations with both the Bush and Obama administrations while also seeking to diversify Brazil’s economic and geopolitical partners, especially in the Global South.

He also played a central role in the creation of the BRICS, a loosely defined multilateral bloc consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The bloc has helped reshape the economic and geopolitical balance of the world over the past two decades.

Since returning to power, Lula sought to strengthen the BRICS bank – a funding agency for developmental projects in the Global South that offers a financial alternative to the World Bank. In a show of intent, Lula pushed for the appointment of ex-Brazilian president – and his former chief of staff – Dilma Rousseff to head the agency.

Much as with his domestic agenda of rebuilding social programs, undermined by his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, in the international arena Lula is looking to restart his project of strengthening Brazil’s ties with a variety of partners. In his first month in office, Lula attended a meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean nations (CELAC) in Argentina, where he outlined a desire to strengthen Brazil’s relations in the region.

The Conversation