Economic growth generate job opportunities

The Bangladesh government recognises the disproportionate impact that weak economic conditions have on young people, particularly those who are furthest from the labour market. We also recognise that staying in learning or training is the best way for young people to develop the skills they need to progress towards and into employment. With this in mind, the Bangladesh Government is seeking to ensure that appropriate measures are in place to enable Bangladesh’s young people to take advantage of job opportunities now and in the future. There is a desire among many students to go abroad for higher studies as the quality of education is better in more advanced countries.

Once students graduate, they do not want to return to Bangladesh as they find better opportunities in the host country to utilise their qualifications. Indeed, Bangladeshi students are increasingly doing well in colleges and universities abroad, and global companies in countries such as the US are always looking for skilled human resources, irrespective of nationality. Mobility is human nature, and the objective is usually to gain a better quality of life. Across the world, this is an ongoing phenomenon, and people from least developed and developing countries are especially eager to move to countries with more advanced economic, social, and political conditions. Even though Bangladesh has made much economic and social progress over the past five decades, this has not been enough to keep its people, particularly the youth, in the country. Human resource is the backbone for a country as it contributes towards economic and social prosperity.

But despite having a large population of young people, Bangladesh does not have an adequate amount of highly qualified, skilled, and capable human resources. Bangladesh rise in the number of unemployed people by 2.70 lakh within a span of one quarter is alarming. In December 2022, the number of total unemployed people stood at 23.2 lakh, according to the quarterly data from the Labour Force Survey of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). That has now gone up to 25.9 lakh increasing the unemployment rate to 3.51 per cent from 3.2 per cent back in December, according to official data which, many economists argue is a deflated number, compared to the real rate of unemployment in Bangladesh to begin with. The total number of people employed in the country now stands at 7.11 crore.

Among them, 3.19 crore are employed in the agriculture sector, 1.22 crore in the industrial sector, and 2.69 crore in the service sector. According to the state minister for planning, much of the decline in the number of employed in the last quarter came down to seasonal factors. The period between January-March is usually a lean one for the agriculture sector, which is what has driven the rise in the number of unemployed people. Thus, the state minister said that the increase should not cause an alarm. While that may be true in one sense, if seen from a broader perspective, it should still be a cause for concern. As evident from the numbers, agriculture continues to be our chief source of employment. In 2016-17, the sector accounted for 40.6 per cent of employment, which increased to 45.33 per cent in 2022. During this period, the share of manufacturing jobs declined from 20.4 per cent to 17.02 per cent, which raises a number of questions about the nature of our economic development.

As an economy develops, traditionally, more and more people tend to move out of the agriculture sector and join the manufacturing sector. In the next stage of transformation, workers move out of manufacturing to join the service sector. The fact that such transitions are not happening in Bangladesh is puzzling and not a good sign. In 2022, the total number of people employed in the manufacturing sector stood at 1.21 crore, down from 1.24 crore in 2016-17. During that same period, industry and manufacturing in particular was the fastest growing sector in the country. The fact that production in the sector grew at nearly double-digits, while the number of employed decreased does not make any sense especially since automation has not happened to an extent that could fully explain the decline. When there are no other employment opportunities, people tend to go back to doing agricultural work such as farming. And while there is no doubt that we need people to work in this sector, the fact that employment in other sectors of the economy is stagnating brings into question the quality of our economic growth. This once again brings to fore the issue of whether Bangladesh is experiencing jobless growth, and why that might be. Clearly, these are issues that need thorough investigation. Without creating more quality and sustainable jobs for our people, what is the point of economic growth? The government needs to rethink its economic and developmental models so that they align with the aspirations of our people and provide them with better opportunities. As per the latest census, Bangladesh’s youth population has increased by 15.81 per cent to 4.59 crore over the last decade.

This has provided the country with a great opportunity to make the most of what is known as demographic dividend, an economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than that of the non-working-age population. What is unfortunate, however, is that till now Bangladesh has largely failed to utilise this once-in-a-lifetime window of demographic dividend due to its inability to create jobs and other opportunities for them to flourish. The International Labour Organization (ILO) ranked Bangladesh second out of 28 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for having the highest rate of educated unemployment.

The ILO also estimated that between 2010 to 2017 close to the same period when Bangladesh’s youth population increased the rate of youth unemployment had doubled. Before releasing the most recent Labour Force Survey 2022, the government’s last survey on the labour force came out in 2016-17, which also showed a lack of seriousness on part of the authorities to address issues related to unemployment. In that survey, it was also seen that the youth unemployment rate stood at more than double the national unemployment rate, with the rate being higher among the more educated youth. For example, unemployment rate was 13.4 per cent among youths having a tertiary-level education and 29.8 per cent among youths having secondary-level education.Experts have pointed out that the economic miracles experienced by Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan between the early 1960s and 1990s, and the economic boom witnessed by Ireland in the 1990s, were all down to the utilisation of their respective demographic dividends.

For Bangladesh, this window is expected to close within the next decade or two. If we are to take advantage of it to propel the nation forward, then the government has to do much more in terms of creating jobs and overall opportunities for young people. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that having such a large group of young people could prove to be a double-edged sword. Along our current trajectory, where the youth are basically being starved off opportunities, they might become increasingly frustrated and disillusioned. In the absence of opportunities to contribute to the nation and society, or to improve their own lives, where are these young people supposed to channel their energy? It might well be towards criminal activities that may exert tremendous pressure on the country, which will worsen our economic and societal outcomes. Therefore, it is high time the government formulated a holistic strategy to provide the best opportunities for our young citizens. Freedom and human rights are very important to the young generation. They want to express their thoughts and ideas without hesitation and fear. They like to exercise their own choices in their careers and personal lives and not be judged by society. Many argue that for a populous country like Bangladesh, such an exodus is not bad because the migrated people are not competing in the labour market where young graduates find it difficult to get a job. But creating adequate employment opportunities and utilising the talents of those who stay back in the country remains an unfinished agenda of the government. Policymakers must invest in human resources who are looking for jobs in the country.

The government should also work to encourage those who have left the country to return and contribute to nation-building, transferring their skills and knowledge to the country. Of course, without addressing the root cause of brain drain, there will be little success in slowing the departure of qualified professionals and young students. People want to work in an environment where professional excellence, instead of connections, is considered as the criteria for promotion and success. Talented and sincere professionals feel discouraged seeing the backbenchers of their universities being promoted not by dint of quality and hard work but through their network of influence. In order to retain the talents within the country and bring back migrated professionals, we need better opportunities, working conditions, access to quality education, health and other social services, political stability, and rule of law. Thus, to slow down the brain drain and ensure faster economic progress, a holistic approach is required.

The writer is a researcher and columnist