Bangladesh may lose 21b working hours annually: Study  

Bangladesh could lose approximately 21 billion working hours annually if global temperature rises by 1^oC compared to 7 billion hours at the current temperature, a study has found.

Also, a temperature rise by 2^oC or 4^oC could result in a loss of 31 or 57 billion working hours annually in the country, said the study led by Duke University researchers. The research was published in Nature Communications on December 14.

It said when the temperature remains between 27^oC and 28^oC on a hot summer day in Dhaka, it results in approximately 10 minutes of working hour loss per hour per person. But if global temperature changes by 2^oC and reach around 31^oC, it will result in a 17-minute productivity loss.

Similarly, a loss of approximately 30 minutes has been predicted if global temperature changes by 4^oC and reaches 33^oC.

Director of climate change at the Department of Environment Mirza Shawkat Ali told The Business Post it is a very practical fact that people will lose productivity because of global warming. “But we have no study on this.”

Heat-related labour productivity losses can be as high as $280-311 billion per year, according to the study. Most of these losses occur in low-and middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh, that are heavy in manual labour like agriculture and construction.

Besides, Bangladesh, after India and China, is the second most vulnerable country in Southeast Asia to labour harm as a result of prolonged exposure to rising temperatures.

At the current temperature assuming a 12-hour workday, the study shows Bangladesh may lose around 254 hours of labour per person per year as a result of extreme heat exposure.

Again, if temperature rises by 1°C, the global average labour loss will reach 134 hours per person per year while Bangladesh alone will lose 391 hours per person per year.

The study also said it is alarming that Bangladesh may lose around 573 hours of labour per person per year if global temperature rises by 2°C.

Bangladesh can save around 30 minutes of productivity loss even if temperature changes by 4^oC. But as heat exposure in the morning hours increases in the tropics and subtropics, this adaptation mechanism may become less effective eventually.

The study projected future labour losses for every country under a global temperature rise of 1^oC, 2^oC, 3^oC, and 4 ^oC relative to the present.

It said labour losses due to heat exposure are caused by a combination of large working-age populations, seasonal heat exposure, and large proportions of people employed in agriculture and construction.

An additional 1°C of global warming could occur as early as 2037, and another 2°C by 2051. If global warming continues unabated, many young and middle-aged workers will live to see the world enter a new "less adaptable" climate regime.

The study findings emphasise the importance of developing alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe and limiting future warming to 1.5°C-2°C to help protect workers' livelihoods, health, and well-being.

To develop the study, the scientists used a blend of observation-based meteorological data and climate model projections of temperature and humidity to estimate humid heat exposure, current labour losses, and projected future labour losses under additional warming.