Crisis looms as wheat loses govt priority

Farmers in Bangladesh are losing interest in cultivating wheat at a time when the demand for this particular foodgrain has gone up due to its massive use in everyday essentials.

While farmers moved away to maize cultivation to make more profit, wheat import has only increased in the face of popular demand.

In the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war and India’s export ban, the need for higher local production of wheat is being badly felt.

Many baked food items, the main ingredient in which is wheat flour, have already seen a spike in prices in recent times because of the high import dependency.

Also, the price of flour is set to see a hike very soon in the domestic market — which has an annual demand of about 65 lakh tonnes.

Last month, the World Bank said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in February shook the commodity markets and will keep global prices high through the end of 2024. Food prices are expected to rise by 22.9% this year alone, driven by a 40% rise in wheat prices, it said.

Ukraine and Russia together are responsible for about 14% of global wheat production, and about 29% of all wheat exports. The war has put a halt to most of the exports.

After India banned exports last Saturday, wheat prices went up by 6% in the international markets on Monday, CNN reported on Wednesday.

However, the Bangladesh government is not taking local demand for wheat and the looming crisis at face value and currently prioritising rice production to maintain basic food security across the country.

Experts, under the circumstances, have urged the authorities to consider helping the farmers increase wheat cultivation and tackle the crisis that is likely headed the country’s way.

Then and now

Back in the 2016-17 financial year, farmers grew wheat on 4.15 lakh hectares of land and that reduced to 3.28 lakh hectares or 21 per cent in FY2020-21, according to Bangladesh’s Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) — which is responsible for agricultural research and introducing high yielding varieties to the farmers.

Wheat production has also declined by 2.26 lakh tonnes in the last five years. The country had produced 13.11 lakh tonnes in FY17. It came down to 10.85 lakh tonnes in FY21.

On the other hand, Bangladesh is importing a huge amount of wheat every year, which ranged from 51 lakh to 64 lakh tonnes since FY17.

According to data from DAE’s Plant Quarantine Wing, the country imported 55.94 lakh tonnes of wheat in FY17. In FY20, 64.81 lakh tonnes were imported — the highest in the last five years.

In the first 10 months (July-April) of outgoing FY2021-22, according to the National Board of Revenue, the country imported 55.5 lakh tonnes, which is more than FY21’s 54.53 lakh tonnes.

This only indicates the higher rate of wheat consumption by the populace in recent days.

Why not a priority?

Sayed Rafiqual Amin, additional director (inputs) of the DAE’s Field Services Wing, said, “We have prepared 6,590 exhibition plots of wheat using newly invented high yielding varieties. We think people will be encouraged to cultivate them after seeing these plots.”

“We have a small available amount of seeds that were developed recently. We have to coordinate and work together with the research organizations, breeding authorities [Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation] and other government agencies concerned.

“It takes time to popularize new varieties. But wheat production will increase in future,” he hoped.

However, the reality is quite opposite when it comes to government initiatives to boost wheat production.

According to DAE officials, the department is emphasising maize cultivation because of its rising demand in the animal feed industry, among other related sectors.

The DAE has been facilitating wheat farmers’ shift to maize farming highlighting its demand and bigger import earnings.

Currently, the government is also planning to increase rice production across the country.

Rafiqual Amin said, “Since wheat import is not possible, all departments under the Agriculture ministry are now working on ideas to increase rice production and tackle the wheat shortage with rice.”

“Food security is our priority. Other issues come after that,” he said and added that wheat is just a foodgrain but maize has multiple uses.

What to do

Former agriculture secretary Anwar Faruk told The Business Post, “We can’t import wheat from our main suppliers Russia and Ukraine because of the war. India has also imposed an export ban. There is no immediate solution. And wheat prices in the international market will only keep rising.

“Considering the situation, we [Bangladesh] need to reset our wheat cultivation planning.”

He said, “Longevity of winter, which is crucial for wheat cultivation, has been on the decline for years and that has led the farmers to shift from wheat to other crops — mainly maize [also known as corn].

“To bring back the farmers’ interest, heat-tolerant varieties of wheat need to be developed. We will have to use biotechnology as well, if possible/needed.”

“Meanwhile, Bangladesh is cultivating extra potatoes and vegetables. Since the amount of land is limited, some potato and vegetable farming land can be repurposed to cultivate wheat,” he suggested. Faruk also added that the government needs to give more subsidies, by bearing the cost of any likely losses, to the farmers to keep wheat cultivation alive.

Dr Md Abdul Hakim, the principal scientific officer of Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute, said, “In Thakurgaon, Panchagorh and Rajshahi, some farmers have yielded 4-4.5 tonnes of wheat per hectare. Some of the varieties that we have developed, such as BARI-30, BARI-32, BARI-33, and WMRI-1 and 2, have the productivity of 4-5 tonnes per hectare.”

“Around 60% of farmers of Thakurgaon are using these developed varieties and getting high yields. But the problem is that it takes too much time to get them to the farmers,” he added.

Dr Hakim suggested using some Boro land in Barind areas for wheat cultivation since these lands need more irrigation, which is costlier.

The wheat-maize conundrum

A comparison of wheat and maize prices in the international market sheds light on one of the reasons why farmers are now considering maize farming more and more. In FY21, the yield of wheat per hectare was 3.30 tonnes. On the other hand, maize production was 10.03 tonnes per hectare — which is 300 per cent higher than wheat.

According to IndexMundi, wheat was sold at $374 per tonne in January — 35 per cent higher than the $276 maize price per tonne.

Due to the global crisis, the wheat price is on the rise again. In April, the wheat price was $495 per tonne — 42 per cent higher compared to the maize price of $348 per tonne.

Despite all that, since its productivity is 300 per cent higher than wheat, maize automatically has become much more profitable to the farmers.

DAE data shows that most of the land now used for maize farming in Bangladesh was previously used to grow wheat five years ago, and that number is increasing rapidly.

In FY2016-17, farmers cultivated maize on some 4.25 lakh hectares of land while wheat was cultivated on some 4.15 lakh hectares of land.

But over the past five years, maize cultivation land has increased by 1.39 lakh hectares to 5.64 lakh hectares.

Maize production in the country has also seen a 61 per cent tremendous jump in the same period— from 35.16 lakh tonnes in FY17 to 56.63 lakh tonnes in FY21.