Heat stress to worsen with heavy reliance on LNG expansion

Heat stress in Bangladesh will worsen with heavy reliance on fossil fuel and liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion, according to a recent report by Zero Carbon Analytics.

It said heat stress from fossil fuel expansion will impact human health, labour productivity, income, and the overall economic growth of the country severely.

Besides, it said Bangladesh is predicted to experience more frequent and severe heat waves, which have been shown to increase mortality rates by as much as 31.3 per cent for every 1 degree Celsius increase in the universal thermal climate index.

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the country experienced severe heat waves in the last one month, with temperatures crossing 40 degrees in most areas.

Heat waves increase the demand for air-conditioners and up to a quarter of the country’s power demand comes from air conditioning. Without air conditioning, elderly and disabled people, children, and those with underlying health conditions are at a greater risk of heat stress when temperature exceeds 40 degrees Celsius, the report said.

In mid-July last year, 20 per cent of the country’s electricity demand was not met due to gas shortages, with the country cutting power on 85 of the 92 days up to the end of October, according to a Reuters report.

The reliance on imported LNG means the impacts of the current energy crisis have been acute, with widespread power cuts hitting both industrial production and the availability of air conditioning during hot weather, the Zero Carbon Analytics report said.

Those exposed to heat stress can suffer from respiratory problems, leading to reduced productivity, increased absenteeism, and long-term health issues.

Zero Carbon Analytics is an international research group working on climate change and energy transition.

Fossil fuel and climate migration

Bangladesh will be hit hard as the country is on the front line of climate change, and 56 per cent of the population – more than 90 million people – lives in areas with high exposure to climate change compared to a global average of 14 per cent, the report said.

In 2022 alone, over 7.1 million Bangladeshis were displaced by climate change, according to the World Health Organisation.

Besides, 33 per cent of the population – more than 53 million people – faces very high exposure to climate change compared to just 6 per cent globally.

Bangladesh experienced 185 extreme weather events due to climate change between 2000 and 2019.

Huge LNG expansion plan

In 2016, the government planned to hugely increase LNG imports. It set a target to start LNG imports in 2019 at a level that would meet 17 per cent of the country’s gas demand, which would rise to 40 per cent in 2023, 50 per cent in 2028, and 70 per cent in 2041.

By 2022, LNG imports accounted for 22 per cent of the country’s total gas demand.