Leading agro-economist and Planning Commission’s general economics division (GED) member Professor Dr Shamsul Alam said the ongoing flood was unlikely to cause any major infrastructural damage or crop loss despite swelling waters in major river basins.
“It will not be that high,” he said as asked for comments on the deluge impact on economy and agriculture while COVID-19 pandemic continued to claim lives and hit hard on peoples livelihood.
Alam said farmers by now have entirely harvested the valuable Boro rice and major portion of jute leaving some quantum of vegetables and sowed Aman seedlings as flood waters inundated households and croplands in places.
“But, I expect no big loss as far as crop is concerned and I should say hopefully we can overcome this as with recession of flood waters we will have enough time to prepare seed beds for Aman crop,” he said.
Alam, however, expressed his concern that the flood could cause havoc in particular areas where gushing waters collapsed protection embankments, damaging other infrastructures as well.
Alam, who is the key author of the incumbent government’s ambitious Delta Plan for the coming 100 years, asked all to keep in mind that flood is an annual phenomenon which usually lasts as high as three weeks.
He said in most years flood waters start receding within one or two weeks the deluge this year appeared with exceptional scenario and “the government will be able to overcome and handle it”.
“By now the government launched a big rescue and relief campaign to reach succor to flood victims in affected districts,” said the senior planning commission official who holds the rank of a senior secretary to the government.
But asked if he expected a major deluge his year like those of 2004, 1998 or 1988, the expert preferred to call a flooding a major one when it engulfs two thirds of the country for over a month or two to three months as it happened during those years.
Alam said the flood so far hit only 18 out of the country’s 64 administrative districts, an indication that the county is unlikely to experience a major deluge this year.
“I believe massive dredging of our rivers over the past years particularly since 2010, which has been prescribed in our Delta Plan 2100 as well, diminished possibilities of deluges of that extent,” Alam said.
He said once the capital dredging was carried out, annual maintenance dredging was being done so the river beds were not heightened again with silt deposition.
“With the dredging of major rivers, big natural canals, waters will certainly be flowing downward. So, there is less possibilities that we will have big flooding like 1988 and 1998,” Alam said.
The economist also largely relied on morphological predictions dispelling chances of a synchronized deluge when three out of four major rivers – the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, Meghna and the Ganges-Padma streams – swallow simultaneously.
“Hopefully, the rivers particularly the Padma, Jamuna, Brahmaputra and Meghna will not be inflated at a time to cause a major deluge this year,” he said referring to hydrological predictions.
He said the Delta Plan set a target of systematic and intensified dredging of major streams to evade major deluges saying under the design “all the major rivers will be dredged, all the big and natural canals will be dug, and even all the ponds will be re-excavated routinely”.
The planning commission’s member tasked to oversee the general economic affairs, said the flood so far affected some 23,60,000 people and 5,51,000 households.
Alam noted that the water level of River Jamuna and Brahmaputra was declining while it remained stable in the Ganges and Padma while in upper Meghna the streams were flowing below their danger levels.
“If we take into consideration all the factors, perhaps the flood situation will not be aggravated in the coming days,” he concluded.
(Source: BSS)
