Ahead of the Health Day of COP28, a new report released on Sunday by XDI (Cross Dependency Analysis), a global leader in physical climate risk analysis, showcases that one in 12 hospitals around the world could face partial or total shutdown due to extreme weather events caused by climate change if countries fail to curb fossil fuel emissions.
The report analysed 1,244 hospitals in Bangladesh and found that around 183 hospitals (14.7 per cent) are at high risk of facing total or partial shutdown by 2100.
As a result, communities hit by cyclones, severe storms, flooding, and other disasters could be cut off from emergency hospital care right when they need it most, with low and middle-income countries like Bangladesh at most risk, the report states.
"Climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world. What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well? Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further, as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises,” said Dr Karl Mallon, Director of Science and Technology, XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative), reads a media statement.
The report highlighted that without a swift phase-out of fossil fuels, an alarming projection indicates that by the end of the century, nearly one in 12 hospitals globally—amounting to 16,245 hospitals—face a high risk of complete or partial shutdown due to extreme weather events. This number significantly surpasses the current count of vulnerable hospitals and parallels the classification of uninsurable residential or commercial structures.
All 16,245 identified high-risk hospitals will necessitate extensive adaptation measures where feasible. Despite substantial investment in these adaptations, relocation will emerge as the sole viable option for a considerable number of hospitals facing the highest risks. Among the 16,245 high-risk hospitals projected for 2100, a staggering 71 per cent (11,512) of these facilities are situated in low and middle-income countries, underscoring a disproportionate impact on regions with fewer resources.
The report mentioned that limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius through an expedited phase-out of fossil fuels would effectively halve the risk of infrastructure damage to hospitals compared to scenarios with high emissions. Conversely, under high-emission circumstances, the risk of hospital damage from extreme weather would surge more than four-fold (311 per cent) by the century's end. This escalation would reduce to 106 per cent in a low-emission scenario.
The report estimated that under a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), Bangladesh has a 79 per cent damage risk increase by 2020-2050 and 316 per cent risk by 202-2100. On the other hand, under the low emission scenario (RCP 2.6), Bangladesh will face a 40 per cent damage risk increase by 2020-2050 and 95 per cent by 2020-2050.
Presently, South East Asia bears the highest percentage of hospitals at high risk from extreme weather events globally, with nearly 1 in 5 hospitals (18.4 per cent) projected to face potential total or partial shutdown by the century's close in high-emission scenarios. South Asia accounts for the highest number of hospitals at risk, aligning with its dense population. If emissions remain high, projections suggest that by 2050, one-third of the most vulnerable hospitals worldwide (3,357) will be situated in South Asia. By 2100, this count could skyrocket to 5,894.
The report highlighted that hospitals situated in coastal regions and close to rivers encounter the most imminent threats. Presently, riverine and surface water flooding primarily pose risks. However, by the century's end, coastal inundation—exacerbated by rising sea levels—will rapidly escalate, becoming the most prominent hazard after riverine flooding by 2100, the release added.
“The most obvious thing to dramatically reduce this risk to hospitals, and keep communities safe, is to reduce emissions,” said Dr Karl Mallon.
XDI Global Hospital Infrastructure Physical Climate Risk Report 2023
The report analyses how continued emissions will affect the vulnerability of over 2,00,000 hospitals around the world to six climate change hazards: coastal inundation, riverine flooding, surface water flooding, forest fire, extreme wind and cyclone wind. The analysis focuses on physical damage to building structures and calculates how different emission scenarios can reduce risk. It is being published ahead of the inaugural Health Day at the COP28 UN Climate Conference, held from November 30 to December 12 in the United Arab Emirates.
