Bangladesh will become a country of old-age people before it becomes a developed nation as the demographic dividend the country is enjoying will start to shrink and the share of working age population will start to decline after 2040.
Since the early 1990s, Bangladesh has been going through a demographic transition with the share of the working age population [15-64 years] going higher than the share of the non-working age population.
According to Labour Force Survey 2022, the working age population has surpassed 120 million, which is 71.2 per cent of the total population that was 109 million in 2017.
“But we are failing to utilise these huge workforce properly due to lack of coordination between the produced manpower and required workforce for the industries and service sectors. When we are supposed to become a developed nation, the number of working people will be less than the older population,” said Dr M A Razzaque, Chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).
He came up with the observations while delivering the keynote presentation at a technical dialogue on National Employment Policy and Labour Market Employment Challenges in Bangladesh.
“So, this is the perfect time, we take this into consideration to tackle the situation in future,” he said at the programme jointly organised by International Labour Organization (ILO) and the Ministry of Labour and Employment at a hotel in the capital on Thursday.
Dr also Razzaque said that in the GDP, the contribution of industry has increased from 32.5 per cent to 36.9 per cent and the contribution of the agriculture sector has declined from 14.1 per cent to 11.6 per cent.
“But interestingly, the percentage of employment has increased to 4.6 per cent and for the industrial sector, it has decreased to 3.4 per cent because proper skilled manpower is not being created comparing to the sectoral demand,” he said.
Besides, he said that though national labour force participation increased to 62 per cent in 2022 from 58 per cent in 2017, labour force participation rate of female is frustrating in urban areas as it dropped to 23.58 per cent from 31 per cent.
Dr Razzaque pointed out that the country sends more workers abroad than some other countries, but it earns less as well.
“For example, 1.83 million Filipino workers generated $36.9 billion in remittances in 2021 while more than ten million Bangladeshi overseas workers remitted $22.1 billion. In the same time, Nepal earned $ 8.2 billion remittances from only 2.1 million migrant workers,” he said.
Speaking at the programme, Md. Ehsan-E-Elahi, Secretary of Ministry of Labour and Employment, said that the per capita income has dropped due to the global economic crisis. “We will have to take per capita income for labours to $12,500 if we want to be a developed country by 2041. We will be stuck in the middle income trap like Thailand if we fail to do that.”
He said, “If Bangladesh cannot make proper use of the young generation by 2031, we will be in middle income trap like Brazil. We will need to reach the target of providing employment to three crore people by next eight years, which means 23 lakh people will need to be employed per year at home and abroad.”
Begum Monnujan Sufian, State Minister for Labour and Employment, told the programme that her ministry and stakeholders will pursue evidence-based policy development and targeted interventions to create an enabling environment for decent employment opportunities, which will be aligned with the employment policy developed last year.
“As part of its implementation, the Ministry of Labour and Employment is also planning to establish an employment directorate to coordinate the employment agenda,” she said while specking as the chief guest.
Tuomo Poutiainen, Country Director for ILO Bangladesh said, “It is evident that jobs creation, social security, quality of employment and international trade are crucial to achieve the goals, but the National Employment Policy could be the pivotal tool to pushing employment agenda further in connection to achieve the country’s vision.”
Dr Md Kawser Ahmed, Member (Secretary) of the General Economics Division (GED) said, “Implementing the National Employment Policy of Bangladesh is a key to addressing labour market challenges, promoting inclusion, and driving sustainable development. With targeted policies and interventions, we can effectively tackle unemployment, skills mismatch, and other pressing issues, ultimately improving livelihoods and fostering socioeconomic progress."
Sharifa Khan, Secretary of the Economic Relations Division, said LDC graduation brings forth labour market and employment consequences, highlighting the need for skilled workers and increased labour productivity to enhance competitiveness in exporting high-end products and services.
Dr. Shahnaz Arefin, Secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division, highlighted the importance of labour market intelligence and labour market data in formulating and implanting employment policies. She said, “Labour market intelligence and data play a crucial role in formulating and implementing effective employment policies.”
