Iran plays for time as pessimism grows over nuclear talks

A new hard-line regime in Tehran has insisted it wants to return to the negotiating table and revive talks over a deal to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. But its actions are telling a slightly different story. 

In recent days, Iranian officials have held dozens of meetings with foreign officials to discuss the nuclear talks — but revealed few details about when they will return and what they want. And the regime continues to play a game of brinkmanship with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency, striking deals to avoid censures, only to block access for inspectors days later. 

The push-pull tactics have fueled worries in diplomatic circles that a return to the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is becoming increasingly difficult. 

The agreement was put on life support in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump exited the deal, only to receive new life when President Joe Biden took over. Since then, world powers have gone through six rounds of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in Vienna, hoping to find an accord. Yet the talks have been suspended since June, when negotiators broke up, pending the Iranian elections. 

While the world waits, Iran is building out its nuclear capacity, with experts warning that the country’s “breakout time” — the amount of time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb — is getting shorter.

“Iran is certainly playing for time and will in the meantime continue to enhance its nuclear program to gain political leverage,” said one senior diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive situation. “Iran most probably will only come back to the table in Vienna if the west makes a gesture of goodwill or provides certain concessions to Iran.”

Iran may consider the U.S. “weak” at the moment, the diplomat added, given its recent series of diplomatic squabbles, from the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal to a fallout with France over a canceled submarine contract. This perception could encourage Iran to harden its negotiating position, the senior diplomat said. 

Tehran’s mixed signals have extended the expected timeline for any renewed agreement. In a recent analysis, Henry Rome from the Eurasia Group assessed that the revival of the Iran nuclear agreement was “unlikely this year, given mounting uncertainty about Tehran’s interest and the shrinking timetable.”

Iranian officials didn’t offer much reason for optimism during last week’s U.N. General Assembly in New York. 

During a flurry of around 50 bilateral meetings held during the week-long gathering, Iran’s new foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, conveyed no concrete information on the timing of the talks to political leaders from around the world, according to three diplomats who are familiar with the matter.

Still, Western allies used these meetings to urge Amirabdollahian to return to the negotiating table. It was a common theme in Amirabdollahian’s meetings with foreign ministers from Germany, France and the United Kingdom, as well as with the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

According to a press release issued after Borrell’s meeting with Amirabdollahian in New York, the Iranian foreign minister “assured of the willingness to resume negotiations at an early date.”

Iran also sat out a meeting during the U.N. General Assembly of the so-called Joint Commission, which consists of the remaining members of the 2015 deal — Iran, the United Kingdom, China, France, Germany and Russia — and is chaired by the European Union. The gathering was meant to help unblock the current stalemate. 

Meanwhile, back in Iran, Tehran decided to block U.N. inspectors from visiting the Karaj complex outside Tehran. The key facility is used to assemble centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium.

The inspectors wanted access to Karaj to replace broken and damaged cameras that record the facility’s activities, part of a deal Tehran struck with the nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), on September 12. The pact helped Iran avert IAEA censure, a step that might have derailed the nuclear talks completely. 

Politico