Whither Bangladesh economy?

Bangladesh economy has reached many impressive milestones. The country is moving forward overcoming various obstacles. The government has taken up several mega projects. The Padma Multipurpose Bridge is nearing completion. The last span was set up last December. The bridge will be open to traffic in the middle of next year. This will revolutionize communication with the southern part of Bangladesh. Bangabandhu Satellite-1 contributes to boosting the country’s economy by providing all citizens with a wide range of telecommunications services (direct-to-home TV, radio, telemedicine, education, and internet access), Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Dhaka Metrorail Project, Matarbari Deep Seaport Construction Project, Rampal Coal Based Power Project, Bangabandhu Tunnel Construction Project, work of 100 economic zones is in progress, elevated expressway, more than three dozen high-tech parks, and IT villages are being built. The eighth Five Year Plan has been adopted. The villages are being equipped with all civic amenities. Today we have become a country that can hold its head high

The government has worked tirelessly to implement the Sixth Five-Year Plan, the MDGs, and the First Perspective Plan. The shelter project has provided shelter to 3,20,072 families till now. In the Mujib birth centenary, the government has provided 66,189 families a single home as a gift of the year. About 14,500 community clinics are at the people’s doorsteps to provide health care. The government provides scholarships and stipends to more than three crore students, various allowances to six lakh people, rice worth taka 10 lakh to 50 lakh families, subsidy to farmers in the agricultural sector. The government also announced various incentive packages worth taka 1,21,000 crore during the Covid-19 pandemic have been playing a significant role in poverty alleviation.

Now Bangladesh is the third-largest producer of rice in the world and is also self-sufficient in fish, meat, eggs, and vegetables. Bangladesh ranks second in terms of the growth rate of fish production in inland waters. Today, the benefits of ‘Digital Bangladesh’ have spread from urban areas to rural ones.

The UN announced the transition of Bangladesh from LDC to a developing country in 2018. On the golden jubilee of independence, the UN made a final recommendation to make Bangladesh a developing country. According to the World Economic Forum, Bangladesh will be the 24th largest economy in the world by 2030. According to the second perspective plan, in 2031, there will be no one who can be termed extremely poor in Bangladesh.

Per capita income human resources, and economic fragility— these three indicators determine the eligibility of developing countries. Bangladesh has nearly achieved the desired qualifications in these three indices. Even in the COVID-19, Bangladesh’s per capita income has stunned the whole world by maintaining economic continuity. Which has multiplied the acceptance. There have been positive changes in women’s education, women’s empowerment, healthcare, maternal and child mortality. Women are now contributing at all levels including social, political, and economic. Women in rural areas are not lagging in the touch of technology. They are also moving forward in parallel with the menfolk. This has brightened the image of Bangladesh in the world. Bangladesh is moving forward on the path of building a golden Bengal dreamt by Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

Today’s young people are the leaders of the future. To turn the young generation into human resources, Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics (STEAM) education is being introduced in a big way. Career-oriented education is essential in the contemporary world. The state must give due value to the knowledge, skills, experience, desires, and opinions of the youth.

The prime minister has set four milestones for the country to achieve. The first is the vision of Digital Bangladesh in 2021, the second is to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in 2030, the third is to build a developed Bangladesh in 2041 and the fourth is the Delta Plan for 2100.

All citizens have to work for a developed Bangladesh, free from hunger and poverty (achieving SDG-1 end poverty and SDG-2, Zero Hunger) and uphold the spirit of liberation war and secularism which Bangabandhu dreamt of. Bangladesh has limited resources, more population compared with its land mass. In spite of that Bangladesh today is a role model for development for the world.

Most of the world’s economies have seen negative growth in the last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This means that the gross domestic product (GDP) of these countries is lower than the previous year. Even in high-growth countries like neighboring India, the size of GDP has reduced by about eight per cent. Bangladesh was one of the exceptions to this trend. The economy did suffer but did not shrink in size from the previous year. Despite the global economic downturn in 2019-20, Bangladesh’s economy did not lag behind.

The World Bank thinks that Bangladesh will have more growth in the next fiscal year. The organisation’s forecast for the fiscal year 2022-23 is 7.9 per cent. It is expected that there will be continuity in exports and consumption. Whether the recovery of the economy will continue and poverty will reduce will depend on tackling the damage to the economy by helping the affected families and businesses.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has recently published ‘Vital Statistics’ of 2020 including birth, death, health, and education. It can be seen that the life expectancy or average life expectancy of Bangladesh is now 63 years. Thirty years ago, in 1990, the average life expectancy was only 56 years. The average life expectancy of Bangladesh, which became independent through a bloody war of liberation due to Pakistan’s misrule, has increased by 15 years in the last 30 years. The average life expectancy of India is less than that of Bangladesh. In 2020 it was 70 years. In Bangladesh, 31 out of every 1,000 children under the age of five died last year. In 1990 this number was 144. There has also been a lot of improvement in the admission rate of students at the primary and secondary levels. Considering the age of secondary level, 63 percent of the children now go to school.

According to the World Bank, Bangladesh’s per capita income in 1990 was 320 USD. In 2020, it stands at 2,139 dollars. The size of Bangladesh’s economy or GDP in 1990 was only 32 billion dollars. In 2020, the GDP stood at 324 billion dollars. In the last decade, Bangladesh has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook on the dynamics of the global economy stated that Bangladesh’s per capita GDP will surpass India this year as well.

Bangladesh’s success in poverty alleviation has been praised throughout the globe. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the poverty rate in Bangladesh in 1973-74 was 72 per cent. According to the latest published household income and expenditure survey, the poverty rate in 2016 stood at 24.3 percent. Based on this, the estimated poverty rate in 2019 is 20.5 percent. The poverty situation deteriorated last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. According to various recent surveys, much of it has now been recovered. The World Bank recently said in an updated report on the economic situation in South Asia that the poverty situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating due to Covid-19, but currently the situation is reversing.

It must be admitted that Bangladesh is facing several challenges on the path of development. These challenges need to be addressed through proper policy and planning. If Bangladesh gets out of the LDC status in 2026, the current duty and quota-free facility will be available in the EU market only till 2029. Other countries outside the EU will no longer give duty-free access to Bangladeshi products after 2026. For this reason, preparation for the next five years is very important for Bangladesh. Economists are advising on formulating and implementing strong transit strategies in coordination with the SDGs, the Eighth Five-Year Plan, and the Perspective Plan for Sustainable Transit. To make progress in the coming days, it is recommended to pay special attention to increasing the purchasing power of the local market and people, export diversification, increasing employment, development of infrastructure, reduction of corruption, quality education, and expansion of health services.

The writer is a Research Fellow, BNNRC