Home ›› 23 Nov 2021 ›› Opinion
At the final session of COP26 in Glasgow on 13 November, a last-minute change in language to the coal power part of the agreed text replaced “phase-out” with “phase-down”. With no explicit objections from signatories, COP26 President Alok Sharma banged down his gavel. The change was adopted and the Glasgow Climate Pact passed. The hall broke out in applause.
The mood, however, could not compare with the cheers in Paris in 2015, or when Michael Kurtyka, president of COP24, jumped for joy in Katowice in 2018. History will recall that this conference, billed as the last chance to stop climate change, achieved progress rather than success. The three pillars of the Paris Agreement – climate change mitigation, adaptation and financing – were all strengthened, and Glasgow’s clarifications on carbon markets and transparency frameworks, which were leftover issues from Paris, mean the Paris rulebook is now complete and can be fully implemented. But Glasgow’s maintenance of the delicate balance between the different camps means nobody is going home happy.
More importantly, the last-minute change blocked the UK hosts’ goal of a target for phasing out coal power. The UK was successful in retaining the goal of keeping a 1.5C warming limit (as of the end of this century, compared with a pre-industrial baseline) “within reach” – but it’s still unclear how the world will get there. That huge issue is now left to COP27, to be held next year in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. As Sharma said: “The 1.5C goal remains within reach, but its pulse is weak.”
China played a critical role in changing the language on coal power, but that was by no means its only contribution in Glasgow. On 11 November, the China–US Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s came as a welcome surprise to all. It proved increasing tensions between the two nations need not prevent progress on climate change, and served as a reminder of the two China–US joint statements that provided impetus to the Paris Agreement. There were hopes the new declaration would do the same for Glasgow. China also accepted two of the most important points in the Glasgow Climate Pact: a reaffirmation of the 1.5C warming goal, and the targeting of fossil fuels – a first for an official UN climate change conference. Prior to the conference, there had been widespread concerns China would object to both those points.
China also signed up to two important political statements: the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, and the Breakthrough Agenda. The first aims to “halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 while delivering sustainable development and promoting an inclusive rural transformation”. China is a major importer of deforestation-risk commodities such as timber products, soy and palm oil, so its signature is significant and indicates a willingness to participate in global governance of these issues. The second document aims to significantly reduce the cost of renewable energy by 2030 and encourage its use worldwide. That aligns with China’s commitments to support green and low-carbon energy in developing nations, and to halt construction of coal power plants overseas, which it made at the UN General Assembly in September. However, China did not sign up to a widely supported agreement setting end dates for the construction of new “unabated” coal power plants – meaning those not fitted with carbon capture and storage tech.
The China–US declaration
One reason the China–US Joint Glasgow Declaration came as a welcome surprise was the contrast it made with the atmosphere at the start of the conference, when both US President Biden and former president Obama criticised Chinese leaders for failing to attend.
But close observers of China–US cooperation on climate change were not so surprised by the joint declaration. As China’s special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said at the announcement of the declaration, the two negotiating teams had been at work for 10 months, with two sessions in China and almost 30 online meetings. In April this year, Xie and US special climate envoy John Kerry met in Shanghai, where they issued the China–US Joint Statement Addressing the Climate Crisis. The compartmentalisation of climate issues from other topics was widely hailed.
The latest joint declaration put forward positions on closely watched topics due to be decided at Glasgow: the significance of climate change adaptation and financial and capacity-building support for adaptation in developing nations; the fulfilment of a developed world commitment to give developing nations $100 billion a year between 2020 and 2025; and the completion of rules for carbon markets and transparency under the Paris Agreement. That laid a path towards significant outcomes in Glasgow.
It also covered bilateral cooperation on the energy transition, eliminating illegal deforestation and tackling methane emissions. The last of those required the most ink. The two countries agreed that, alongside bolstering cooperation on measuring and researching ways to reduce methane emissions, they would develop extra national and sub-national measures to reduce them by next year’s COP27. China said it will produce a comprehensive and ambitious national action plan on methane. Although no concrete timescale for that plan was given, Li Gao, head of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s (MEE) Department of Climate Change, said at a March workshop on methane that in 2021-2025 China will produce an action plan on controlling the gas and develop a framework for preventing methane emissions from the oil and gas, coal and waste sectors.
Part of the UK’s vision for COP26 included a coal phase-out to help increase ambition for 2030 and keep the 1.5C goal within reach. The Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement, issued during the COP, commits to ending construction of unabated coal power plants, with a phase-out of unabated coal power by 2040 or 2050, depending on the level of development of the country, and a faster roll-out of clean energy. So far, 46 nations have signed up to that statement, including 5 of the 20 biggest coal power users: South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Poland and the Ukraine.
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