Home ›› 12 Jan 2022 ›› Opinion
Downward trend of coronavirus during last few months made us hopeful that we have reached the end of this epidemic and normal life will come back. We were hoping that the black days will sink into oblivion but a new type or variant has appeared and generated panic all over the world. Despite massive vaccination drives, the fear of closing educational institutions, offices, travelling, shopping, social functions, etc. has reappeared. Where is the end to it?
A report of The National Institutes of Health, Washington DC informs that the main function of the virus is to find guests in its own interest of multiplication because its existence becomes meaningless unless it enters into a living body. When the virus reproduces in that body, mutation occurs every time but it is impossible to predict exactly when a mutation will occur. Most mutations are random or negligible but some of those make the virus stronger through increasing the number or rate of infections or making the infection more severe. For instance, the Delta variant turned horrible in India. For reproduction of virus a living body is required. In this process of mutation the virus initially becomes terrible but subsequently turns blunt. When Spanish flu first appeared in 1918 around 500 million lives were lost all over the world but now flu is considered as a seasonal virus. Although many people die of it every year its mutations do not contain epidemic character because vaccines have gradually developed hard immunity among people. So, scientists speculate that Covid-19 virus may become a seasonal virus in next few years.
A very pertinent question arises about Omicron variant– is it more dangerous than Delta? Will vaccines work against it? Before looking for the answer we have to analyse how much we know about it. Omicron first appeared in South Africa on 24th November, last year. Though detected first in the United States in last December 75 per cent of new Covid-19 patients were infected by Omicron. It shows that the transmission of Omicron is much faster than that of other variants but rate of death is lower than that of the Delta variant. In the United States, for example, one person has died of Omicron. India is also infected and it is apprehended that number of deaths will increase in near future and economy may be hit severely. We do not yet know the details of Omicron but more information will be available soon.
The National Institutes of Health, Washington DC suggest that vaccine is needed to prevent any infectious virus. Unless resisted it continuously changes itself as Covid-19 virus has evolved from Alpha to Delta and now to Omicron. Initiative to develop vaccine began early when no Delta or Omicron variants were known but any variant changes in such a way that the old vaccine does not work against it properly. It is apprehended that present vaccines may not be fully effective against Omicron. As immunity usually decreases a booster is required to increase it.
Vaccination began early in 2021. Scientists and public health experts predicted from the outset that a booster dose probably will be required a decade later. So, it is not yet clear whether the vaccine will work properly against Omicron because immunity of the vaccine has decreased. In that case it is not yet certain whether the current vaccine can prevent Omicron or whether the booster dose will be effective at all.
Initial level studies show that booster doses may be effective against Omicron although extensive clinical trials have not yet been done. It is estimated that booster doses may be effective to prevent serious illness even if they do not provide 90 to 95 per cent resistance. Maybe in the future not just the third but fourth or every year booster dose should be taken. However, there is no way to deny that till today vaccine is the only weapon against Omicron. Frustratingly, even in developed countries like the US the initial vaccination rate is 63 per cent and booster dose rate is only 19 per cent. In India the vaccination rate is 80 per cent, booster doses have not yet started up to the end of last December but Bangladesh has already begun it. As Omicron has been detected in Bangladesh, as a precaution, the government has issued 15 directives to prevent it. In South Africa, where Omicron was first detected, the initial vaccination rate was only 45 per cent. 70-75 per cent of people need to be vaccinated to develop strong immunity. If the rate of vaccination is not increased rapidly in the whole world another variant will inevitably rise and soon it will engulf the world.
Many theories and opinions prevail about the origin of Omicron. For instance, it may have entered into human body through an animal or Omicron was roaming somewhere in South Africa but remained undetected. Analysis of Omicron’s genome shows that this variant may have existed since the middle of 2020 but was its exposure was limited. Omicron probably existed in an immune compromised (viz. HIV-infected) human body for a long time. It has gradually changed and spread to other people at the most inappropriate time, place and opportunity. More surprisingly, Omicron has incorporated a fragment of the common seasonal coronavirus into its genome. As a result, just as the seasonal coronavirus appears regularly in homes, so does Omicron spread around the world. Inversely, the wave of Omicron is spreading like wildfire. It is going to increase in the next few weeks. Observing this trend, scientists have speculated that Covid-19 virus may finally become similar to other seasonal viruses.
However, it is to be acknowledged that the epidemic is not yet over. Nevertheless, there is a glimpse of hope that like other common cold viruses the Covid-19 virus will return every year but will not reach the pandemic stage. More hopeful news is that in addition to vaccines, oral capsules to prevent corona have also been developed. In the near future people of the world will probably be able to breathe normally.
The writer is a former Commissioner of Taxes. He can be contacted at chinmayprasunbiswas@yahoo.com
