Home ›› 10 Mar 2022 ›› Opinion
The transformation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s Donbass region into an all-out war on February 24 has led to global economic and security concerns. In this context, the reactions of African countries to the Russian intervention, how the Russia-Ukraine war will affect Russia’s African policies and the general reflections of the war on the continent itself contain different parameters.
In this regard, some oil-exporting countries in the region are in a favorable position, especially in terms of natural gas and raw material exports with the sanctions implemented by the United States and European countries against Russia. On the other hand, countries whose industry and agriculture are heavily dependent on oil exports have the potential to enter an economic bottleneck as a consequence of the increase in oil and natural gas prices. The same is true for grain trade. The fact that Russia and Ukraine provide 25 per cent of the world’s grain supply may indirectly lead the African continent, as one of its largest customers, into food insecurity.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to explain Russia’s interest in Africa with reference to historical and cultural ties from the Soviet era, Russia’s entry into the African continent came to the fore as a necessity based on the sanctions implemented with the 2014 annexation of the Crimea. In this process, Putin’s administration, which sought new markets and diplomatic support, increased its engagement in Africa. So much so that the Russia-Africa summit, which took place in Sochi in 2019 for the first time, with the participation of 50 African countries and 43 presidents, was an indicator of what so many called Russia’s “expansionist” strategy in the continent.
Today, the Russian mercenary Wagner Group operates in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mozambique and Mali. Apart from this, Russia has strong trade relations with important African economies such as South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Sudan. In this context, Russia’s military and economic connections prevent the African Union from acting in unison against the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite the union’s own legislation emphasizing the inviolability of borders and territorial integrity, most of the aforementioned countries have followed an impartial stance. However, countries such as Kenya, Gabon and Ghana stated that Russia’s intervention in Ukraine targeted the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country, consequently leading to the condemnation of Moscow. On the other hand, the president of the Central African Republic, Faustin-Archange Touadera, declared support for Russia’s interventions in Donetsk and Luhansk, while the president of Sudan’s military council, Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, paid a visit to Moscow, accompanied by a large delegation.
In addition to these reactions, Russia, through the Wagner Group, carries out propaganda activities in the countries where it is active, both on social media and through mainstream media, to launder the intervention of Russian troops in Ukraine. It is expected that Russia, which wants to maintain the sympathy and soft power it wields in countries like Burkina Faso and Guinea, where coups have recently taken place, will continue its activities.
With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the US and European countries imposed various sanctions against Russia. In fact, Russia meets 40 per cent of the European Union’s natural gas needs. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are emerging as a strong alternative for Europe as it attempts to diversify its natural gas supply and cut its dependency on Russia. At this point, among African countries, Algeria is a suitable alternative in terms of both its geopolitical position and its large reserves. Apart from this, countries like Senegal (which has 40 trillion cubic meters in energy reserves), Nigeria and Tanzania seem to be at an advantage with their natural gas capacity. In this sense, Nigeria, Niger and Algeria, which are on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline route, cooperated in order to increase their natural gas exports to European markets and signed an agreement on Feb. 16. The deal includes a cost of $13 billion to renew the pipelines.
