Home ›› 19 Jul 2022 ›› Opinion
The Biden administration’s vision for the Middle East has been set back by a conceptual paradox. It presumes that it can create a security, economic and political architecture in the region, bringing together Israel and the Arab states, while simultaneously investing in nuclear talks with Iran seeking a deal that would lift all sanctions on the latter.
True, it would be a stroke of genius if the current US administration could pull off a strategic Iranian-Israeli understanding, whereby Iran would consent to such an architecture and Israel would consent to Iran being part of a new security order that complements it, bringing together the GCC nations, Iraq and Yemen. However, this is far-fetched.
A realistic political reading indicates that the Iranian regime will not relinquish its ideology. It cannot publicly accept Israel as a legitimate state, neither can it stop exporting its revolutionary guards’ model to Arab states, not only to control them but also to prevent them from charting an independent course in their bilateral relations with Israel.
But, just like it is expedient for Iran that Israel continues to exist and reject a two-state solution with the Palestinians, it is expedient for Israel that Iran pursues its nuclear weapons programme, as this is precisely what Israel needs to illustrate the danger Tehran poses to its existence. One can argue that both states are theocratic in nature, no matter Israel’s pretensions of being a democracy fundamentally contradicted by its insistence on being first and foremost a Jewish state.
The flaws in US President Joe Biden’s vision include its detachment from this reality, coupled with a condescending approach towards the Arab world and an ignorance of the dogmas that govern both Iran and Israel. As a consequence, Biden will not be able to forge a so-called new Middle East. He has set out to do this too late, with both Iran and Israel having already finished building their forts. Moreover, most Arab states have already developed policies and choices based on breaking free of US expectations. This was put in motion after former US president Barack Obama, to whom Biden was vice president, shocked them with a policy of abandonment and disregard.
Biden’s visit to the Middle East was rushed, forced on him by the war in Ukraine and Europe’s dire need for alternative oil and gas streams to offset lost Russian supplies. If not for the war and its upending of the global economic and energy landscapes, Biden would possibly not have hastened to visit Saudi Arabia, meet its leaders, and participate in the Jeddah GCC summit also attended by leaders of Egypt, Iraq and Jordan. Indeed, Biden had been preoccupied with reviving the JCPOA (as the Iran nuclear deal is called).
For this reason, the Biden administration has its work cut out – not just with Iran and Israel, but also with the Arab states.
The National
