Home ›› 12 Aug 2022 ›› Opinion
Commercial aviation accounted for roughly 3 percent of global CO2 emissions in 2019. When all related factors are included, such as the impact of NOx, contrails, and water vapor, the share could be double that or more. Airlines have already committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, but companies within the aerospace industry—airframe OEMs, propulsion specialists, and other suppliers—also have an opportunity to make the greener products. These companies cannot only support their airline customers in decarbonizing flight operations; they can also decarbonize their own operations—the part of the process they truly own.
For a typical narrowbody aircraft, our analysis shows that about 99 percent of the lifetime CO2 emissions come from fuel, including its sourcing and combustion. About 1 percent is attributed to aircraft manufacturing, assembly, and maintenance, or to the materials used in these processes. That is significantly different from the lifetime emissions of a typical passenger car, which has a higher share of emissions from manufacturing, assembly, and materials (Exhibit). A large driver for that difference is that cars typically have a shorter operational life than commercial aircraft and get used less each day.
The difference in emission profiles explains why the automotive and aviation industries are tackling decarbonization in different ways. The automotive industry is reducing lifecycle emissions in two primary ways: first by reducing tailpipe emissions by accelerating the transition to battery-electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric vehicles; second by undertaking circular car initiatives that focus on reducing or eliminating emissions throughout the manufacturing and maintenance processes. Most discussion in the aviation industry, by contrast, has been focused on reducing fuel-related emissions, often referred to as “well-to-wake” emissions, which are counted mostly as scope 1 for airlines and scope 3.11 (use of sold products) for aerospace OEMs.
In aviation, efforts to reduce well-to-wake emissions are focused on scaling up the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), the most impactful short- and medium-term lever in the decarbonization pathway of the industry. In addition, the industry is developing true zero propulsion technologies, including battery-electric and hydrogen-based propulsion, increased operational efficiency, and undertaking fleet replacement with more modern and fuel-efficient aircraft. But far less attention has been paid to the non-fuel-related emissions of aircraft across their full lifecycle, which encompasses the materials, manufacturing, assembly, and maintenance operations value chains.
In relative terms, non-fuel-related emissions are tiny, but in absolute terms, they are still something that companies must address—primarily because those are the elements within their direct control. Moreover, once the aviation industry introduces true zero technologies, non-fuel-related factors will comprise a bigger share of total emissions, making this a good time for OEMs and suppliers to start decarbonizing their products.
Aircraft manufacturers, suppliers and maintenance providers need to include their direct scope 1 and 2 emissions in their decarbonization efforts, such as by moving from to green electricity and making their processes more efficient.
mckinsey.com
