Home ›› 27 Aug 2022 ›› Opinion
The vast natural gas and crude oil reserves and production of the US and Canada would certainly be sufficient to supply Eastern Europe and Germany during the upcoming winter
The trade war between Russia and NATO alongside the war in Ukraine has already triggered serious concerns of a possible energy shortage for the upcoming winter in Eastern Europe and Germany, as these regions get much if not most of the energy needed not only for their industrial sector but also to heat their residential areas from Russian natural gas deliveries.
Germany is already proposing to shelter people in heated stadiums, and the European Commission is already recommending a 15% cut for EU member states in natural gas consumption.
The possible impact of such an energy crisis in these regions should not be underestimated and could be far worse than anyone at this point would expect. Through disturbances in natural gas and crude oil deliveries, Moscow already appears to be flexing its muscles with the prospect of weaponizing the dependence of Eastern Europe and Germany on Russian energy.
Russia can use its ability to cause considerable economic, and to a certain degree even existential pain for these societies, to try to turn public opinion in these societies against NATO’s war effort supporting Ukraine, or in the most extreme case, possibly even against NATO itself, as the narratives by pro-Russian groups in these countries are already blaming Ukraine, NATO, and the US for the already present economic hardships.
A worst-case outcome could be mass disruptions in the heating systems of residential areas of these countries. Given the cold winters of the region, the prospect of people freezing in their homes or having to relocate to shelters for weeks, or possibly even longer, hits the very lowest level of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Such a situation could cause unprecedented mass discontent in these societies, which Russia could use to attempt to virtually blackmail Eastern Europe and possibly even Germany out of NATO without a single gunshot.
Given the vast natural gas and crude oil reserves of the US and Canada, in this most extreme case, a Lend-Lease framework offered to these countries regarding these commodities may be the only way to secure the future of the alliance.
The war in Ukraine became a standing war basically in April. Seemingly in this case unilaterally declaring a limited victory would be the lesser of two evils for Russia: About one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory is already under Russian occupation and getting significantly further forward does not seem to be possible given the extremely slow pace of advance and high casualties of Russia, and continuing a standing war of attrition would only cause Russia’s already high losses to mount even further.
But Russia does not seem to be interested in announcing a ceasefire to freeze the conflict along the present front lines yet. To turn the course of the war, Russia would need some game-changing event to happen, and the fact that they are still pushing on suggests that they are indeed waiting for such an event.
Russia’s only chance to turn the war may be undermining Western commitment to help Ukraine and keep it outside Russia’s control. Given emerging energy worries in Europe, incidents of Russia cutting crude oil or natural gas deliveries to Europe for brief periods during recent months, and the track record of Soviet foreign policy in the subversion of enemy societies as one of its main tools, causing an energy crisis in Eastern Europe and Germany and trying to make these societies blame Ukraine, NATO support for Ukraine, and NATO itself may be the most suitable option.
Should Russia manage to cause mass discontent and immense public pressure in Germany and NATO, member states in Eastern Europe pushing governments to back off from the support of Ukraine, this would mean a possible breakthrough that Russia could never hope to achieve on the battlefield.
Of course, Russia taking over all of Ukraine and making it a satellite of its own virtually re-assembling the USSR would increase long-term Russian strategic pressure on Central and Eastern Europe, bringing the vulnerability of the region to Russian pressure to a menacing level.
This would especially be a sinister turn of events for the region given the December 2021 memorandum of Putin, which already demanded the removal of NATO infrastructure from countries that joined the alliance after 1997, signaling malicious intentions towards Eastern Europe.
However, so far the Western narrative regarding the war puts the focus much more on the moral aspects of the war rather than such strategic concerns, so not everyone in these societies may be fully aware of the strategic aspects of the conflict.
And for many among even those who are aware, short-term economic hardship could easily appear a more vital threat than such long-term geopolitical concerns, especially if these economic hardships include people freezing in their homes. And if masses of people are deprived of such basic needs, then the pressure on governments and political elites may become so immense, that they may have no choice but to give in to Russian demands, even against their better judgment.
Unfortunately, if Russia can manage to inflict sufficient levels of pain and mass discontent, this logic may also work even for possible withdrawal from NATO.
The only way to secure the future of NATO against such a threat may be Lend-Lease provided by the US for Eastern Europe and Germany. The vast natural gas and crude oil reserves and production of the US and Canada would certainly be sufficient to supply Eastern Europe and Germany during the upcoming winter.
Of course, it is technically possible for countries of Central and Eastern Europe to delink themselves from Russian gas and free themselves from Russian blackmail in a similar manner as Finland has already achieved, and such should be the long-term solution, however, the process could take multiple years, and if people are expected to freeze for two or three winters in their homes during the process before we get there, that could be expected to produce some of the worst outcomes discussed above.
Also, as shortages may cause energy prices to temporarily skyrocket to unreasonably high levels in these regions, merely selling these products at the market price would not be a suitable solution, as it would very likely still run these countries into a severe recession, and possibly even disturbances in the heating of residential areas.
Therefore, the only suitable solution for the looming energy crisis of Central and Eastern Europe would likely be Lend-Lease to provide LNG and oil products. Lend-Lease saved the UK and arguably the Soviet Union during WW2, and now may be time to use it to secure NATO’s future.
Geopolitical Monitor
