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Bangladesh’s expectations following Hasina-Modi discussions

Md Mazadul Hoque
11 Sep 2022 00:00:00 | Update: 11 Sep 2022 01:30:33
Bangladesh’s expectations following Hasina-Modi discussions

The two neighbours, Bangladesh and India maintain close and strong bilateral relations with the legacy of the glorious Independence war acting like a powerful adhesive.

After a nine-month intense bloody war in 1971 Bengalis were made free from oppressive Pakistani rulers who discriminated against the Bengalis in different ways ever since August 1947 when India was partitioned. During that watershed moment, India supported war-ravaged East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in many ways. India’s contribution during war time was remarkable by all standards. India extended all out support for the freedom fighters and provided accommodation for nearly 10 million Bengali refugees during war time. Dhaka was liberated by joint forces of India and Bangladesh on December 16 with unconditional surrender of Pakistani troops. Since then, the two nations have stood with each other in weal and owe.

The two countries have already completed 50 years of bilateral relations. With a view to taking the relations forward, the two current premiers have taken up a number of visionary initiatives. At first, the two current prime ministers moved for reopening century-old rail routes between India and Bangladesh. It is essential to know that before 1947, there were eight railway routes between the landmass that now constitute India and Bangladesh. A total of five railway interchanges out of eight have already been revived in collaboration with the two heads of the government of these two neighboring countries.

The railway interchanges are Benapole- Petropole, Darshana-Gede, Rohanpur-Singabadh, Biral-Radhikapur and Chiahati-Haldibari. Apart from railway sector connectivity, the two countries have expanded routes for buses for the last one decade. A few rail routes had long been in an inactive state for a long period following the Indo-Pakistan war in 1965.

The two countries jointly flagged off border haats in 2011 experiencing significant volume of cross-border trading. Afterwards, the haats along the border have been increased upon feasibility study. In 2018, Bangladesh and India signed an agreement named ‘Transshipment Deal’. Under the deal, Bangladesh allowed India to use two prime sea ports as transit points to carry goods to and from India’s north-eastern states.

India has been enormously benefited by the transshipment deal. India’s north-eastern states had long been deprived in many areas for absence of smooth land routes. The states are likely to flourish economically once the transshipment deal is fully operational. The bridge-Maitri Setu over Feni river in Tripura, which was inaugurated by two current premiers, have brought about an economic revolution in the region.

In the area of trade and commerce, Bangladesh and India have a track record of significant bilateral trade volume. China and India are two biggest trading partners of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has already emerged as India’s biggest trading partners in South Asia. Bilateral trade in the last five years have grown from $ 9 billion to $ 18 billion. According to the Indian newspaper Business Standard, Bangladesh has become the fourth largest export destination for India with the exports registering a growth of over 66 per cent from USD 9.69 billion in 2020-21 to USD 16.15 billion in 2021-22. Once the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is signed, bilateral trade volume coupled with bilateral GDP would increase even further. Despite increasing bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh, trade balance is markedly in favour of India.

A widely read vernacular daily reported that in FY2021-22 trade deficit between the two countries reached $ 1,420 crore signifying that Bangladesh lags far behind in exporting goods to India. In FY2021-22, Bangladesh imported goods worth $1,619 crore against exporting $199 crore.

In October, 2019, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited India. On the other hand, Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister came to Dhaka in 2021 to attend some events on the occasion of the birth centenary of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and 50 years of Bangladesh’s independence. Recently, Sheikh Hasina visited India at the invitation of Narendra Modi.

At Hyderabad House in New Delhi, the two prime ministers carried out sit-down talks. A total of seven Memoranda of Understandings (MoUs) were signed and exchanged on behalf of their respective countries – India and Bangladesh. The first MoU on withdrawal of 153 cusecs of water from Kushiyara River by Bangladesh under upper Surma-Kushiyara project, Sylhet via Rahmipur, the second on scientific cooperation between Council of Scientific and Industrial Research ( CSIR), India and Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (BCSIR), the third is between National Judicial Academy, Bhopal, India and Supreme Court of Bangladesh, the fourth is between the Ministry of Railways , India and Bangladesh Railway for training of Bangladesh Railway staff at the training Institutes of Indian Railway, the fifth is on IT solutions at Bangladesh part, the sixth is between Prasar Bharati and Bangladesh Television and the seventh is on cooperation in the areas of space technology.

It is important to note that MoU on water sharing issue was finalised at the 38th ministerial-level meeting of India-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) held in August of this year. Besides, the discussions gave priority in the area of security cooperation, investment, trade relations, power and energy sector cooperation, water sharing of common rivers, border management, combating drug smuggling and human trafficking among other issues relate to two nations. The first defense deal between the two countries is another milestone.

It is indeed great news that the Indian side positively responded to Bangladesh’s proposal regarding using India’s territory for transporting goods to a third country. A free transit facility proposal by the Indian side is a landmark offer. Considering the needs of present context, the issue on sub-regional connectivity has become an important one. Hasina-Modi also emphasised executing BBIN Motor Vehicles agreement during the talks.

In my view, if produced or manufactured goods are commercially traded among four countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal, significant economic returns are expected in the region.

As part of sub-regional connectivity, BBIN Motor Vehicles agreement should be rolled out as early as possible. India might consider Bangladesh’s inclusion in the project titled “India–Myanmar–Thailand trilateral highway project. Rail connectivity with Bhutan through Chilahati–Haldibari route has become timely need for Bangladesh. In this regard, India should give its nod as a trusted friendly neighbour. From recent discussions held in New Delhi, the people in Bangladesh were looking forward to expecting solutions regarding long-pending Teesta treaty.

India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, of which seven were identified earlier for developing a framework of water-sharing agreements on priority.

Though the prime ministers of the two countries have met 12 times since 2015, Teesta issue remains at the ‘assurance stage’. The Teesta issue has, in the meantime, turned into emotional affairs to the people of Bangladesh. Since much regional development in Bangladesh depends on Teesta water, the earliest settlement of Teesta treaty is the need of the hour.

Now, the two countries should jointly work on exploring oceanic resources for expanding the size of blue economy. Assurances from many world leaders are observed regarding Rohingya repatriation. But the reality is different. A much-discussed Rohingya issue did not get priority during Hasina-Modi talks which hurt people in Bangladesh. Despite efforts for withdrawing anti-dumping duty on Bangladeshi jute goods and for bringing border killing down to zero, no fruitful results are being seen still now.

Bangladesh’s expects magnanimity from the regional powerhouse India. Hopefully, unresolved issues between the two countries would be resolved in the near future.

 

The writer is an economic affairs analyst. He can be reached at mazadul1985@gmail.com

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