Home ›› 06 Mar 2023 ›› Opinion
In light of China ending its zero-COVID policy, Macau is seeking to recover its tourism-based economy. Success will depend on the effectiveness of ongoing efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19, international travellers’ willingness to visit the region and the Macau government’s ability to support local economic recovery.
Although it is difficult to confirm the true number of positive COVID-19 cases in China since December 2022, recent data suggest the peak of hospitalisations has passed. Chinese residents seem cautiously optimistic about travel, as evidenced by the high number of domestic trips during the Lunar New Year in January 2023.
If China can achieve a strong vaccination rate and the population adequately recovers from the COVID-19 waves that peaked in December 2022, it is reasonable to expect international travel will continue to accelerate in 2023. Renewed growth is probable given Chinese citizens have been prevented from going overseas. The trend of ‘revenge travel’ that emerged in many countries once border restrictions were relaxed has yet to come to China.
In December 2022, China began dismantling its strict zero-COVID measures after nearly three years of recurrent citywide lockdowns, slowed economic growth and disruptions to the tourism and hospitality sectors. Leading global travel service providers to mainland China have seen a rebound in demand for travel and anticipated a surge in the run up to the Lunar New Year holiday season. China officially abolished all quarantine restrictions for inbound visitors as of 8 January 2022.
China has witnessed a substantial rise in domestic and international travel since eliminating its zero-COVID policy. A recent report by tourism website Qyer revealed that ‘most Chinese visitors have a plan to travel overseas within a year’.
Most outbound Chinese tourists are expected to continue travelling somewhat locally. Three-quarters of travel agencies surveyed by Chinese trade firms said their clients’ top choice was Southeast Asia, which does not require negative COVID-19 tests from travellers departing from China.
Indonesia is targeting 255,000 tourists from China in 2023. The country recorded 94,924 visits from China between January and October 2022. More than two million tourists from China visited Indonesia annually prior to the pandemic. This indicates pre-pandemic tourism levels are not expected to return in 2023.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand also recently launched a campaign called ‘China is back’ to welcome the return of Chinese visitors. The Tourism Authority expects more than 300,000 Chinese tourists to visit Thailand in the first three months of 2023 alone.
It will take some time before Chinese international tourism returns to pre-pandemic levels. Travel to Macau is expected to increase, but benefits to the local economy will depend on wider economic trends in the region.
On 8 January 2023, Macau reopened its border to foreign visitors by removing all mandatory quarantine requirements. Arrivals from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan no longer require COVID-19 testing to enter. The Macau Economic Association expects the reopening of Macau will speed up economic recovery.
Macau experienced a significant increase in daily visitor numbers in January 2023, a pattern anticipated to continue through this year. Yet the reopening of international borders could lure mainland Chinese tourists further afield to Europe, Asia, Australia and North America. These destinations, as well as other places in Southeast Asia, will compete with Macau to attract Chinese tourists.
East Asia Forum
