Water, oil and Iraq’s climate future

Iraq’s ecological devastation was set in motion years before the 2003 invasion. For 40 years, the Iraqi state has lurched from crisis to crisis as wars and domestic conflicts have devastated the country’s infrastructure and institutions. The Iran-Iraq war was followed by 13 years of punishing economic sanctions, which began in the 1990s. The 2003 Anglo-US invasion of Iraq has left the state, 20 years later, in political and economic disarray.

These shocks have taken tolls on the environment by displacing water resources, eroding infrastructure that could mitigate climate damage and enabling the unfettered extraction of oil. They have rendered Iraq—a country that has always faced occasions of extreme heat and aridity—among the more vulnerable countries in the Middle East to climate change.

From drought to sand storms to chronic illnesses related to the toxic pollution emanating from oil fields in the south, it is clear that climate conditions in Iraq have noticeably worsened in recent years. This trend is especially damaging when combined with the general decline in state and institutional capacity after 2003.

Yet, the same political and social upheavals that make the climate crisis so pressing have also led to the neglect of climate research in favor of what are perceived as more immediate threats, despite the interconnectedness of these predicaments. Indeed, rather than separate issues, the state of the Iraqi government and its economic and geopolitical entanglements are the main drivers of Iraq’s climate vulnerability today, as exemplified by its two most important resources: water and oil.

Over the past two years, Iraq has experienced its driest seasons in decades, with temperatures frequently surpassing 120 degrees Fahrenheit. As temperatures continue to soar, water supplies decline, triggering one of the worst droughts in 40 years. Iraqi officials estimate that water reserves have decreased by half this year, due in part to changes in weather patterns but also to the action of neighboring countries, like Turkey, where several dam projects limit the water flowing from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. For example, the operation of Turkey’s Ilisu Dam, a mile-wide mega-construction on the Tigris river, has reduced Iraq’s share of the river’s water by an estimated 60 percent. As a result of these declining water flows, a significant portion of Iraq’s wetlands dried out this year, leaving behind dead buffalo and displacing communities.

The same wetlands that are now disappearing were targeted by Saddam Hussein following the Iran-Iraq war and the 1991 mass uprising against his government. Hussein accused the marsh Arabs—communities dwelling in the riparian land that forms the estuary of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers—of aiding rebels fleeing the Iraqi army. In addition to bombing the area during the war, the government attempted to drain the wetlands.

The ostensible reason was to convert these territories into irrigated farmland by constructing dams and levees. But canals like the Prosperity River, the Mother of Battles Canal and the Loyalty to the Leader Channel punitively limited water supply to these historical communities, draining the marshes and displacing local residents that had lived on this land for generations.

As a result of rising temperatures and severe droughts, recent years have also seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Environment, established after 2003, sand and dust storms have increased from 243 to 272 days per year between 2022 and the prior decade. Over just two months of 2022, Iraq experienced ten sandstorms, compared to averages of one to two storms a year in previous decades.

With climate conditions worsening over time, Iraq’s economy will suffer, especially in the agricultural sector. Food production in Iraq is based on smallholder agriculture. Farmers depend on outdated irrigation methods centered around rain-fed systems, leaving many farmers vulnerable to droughts as rainfall levels decline. In addition, the combination of climate conditions and obsolete infrastructure has led to increasing desertification, which already impacts around 39 percent of Iraq’s surface area. As a result, the country loses about 100 square kilometers of arable land each year.

Desertification is forcing farmers to abandon their land and migrate to overpopulated urban centers, where they find limited employment opportunities in the bloated public sector, driving many into the illegal and informal economy.

The rise in frequency and severity of sand and dust storms has also increased long-term respiratory illnesses among the population. In 2022, according to the health ministry as many as 10,000 people were hospitalized as a result of sandstorms. These numbers are likely higher on the ground, and the true magnitude of the crisis is not fully captured due to a shortage of official numbers and research.

MERIP