Ukraine crisis and Bangladesh

War is never good news. Already the fuel prices are ratcheting up. With the generation of electricity running increasingly on heavy fuel oil and diesel, the cost of producing electricity and transportation will rise. Local businesses are fearful that the war would have a ripple effect on their domestic and international operations as Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of agricultural commodities. It is believed that the cost of doing business will go up substantially because of the increase in freight rates.

What should be the role of Bangladesh in the Ukraine crisis? To know the answer to this question, we have to consider the attitude of Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin leader, towards his neighbor Ukraine. In an article published in July 2021, he wrote, “Take a look at how Austria, Germany, the United States, and Canada stand side by side. Although these countries have racial, linguistic, and cultural similarities and have separate interests and foreign policies, the alliance has not hindered them. Millions of people born in Ukraine now live in Russia. We see them as people
close to us.”

Russia has strongly objected to the Westernisation of Ukraine and the eastward expansion of NATO. Time and again, Moscow has blocked Ukraine from joining the European Union EU and NATO alliance. Instead, President Putin wants Ukraine to join the Moscow-controlled Eurasian Economic Union. Many observers consider this union as the first step towards reactivating the Soviet Union. Ukraine’s access to NATO means that the United States or NATO will breathe on Russia’s neck. On the other hand, public opinion in Ukraine is firmly in favour of being part of EU and NATO, but Vladimir Putin smiled the last smile was after occupying Crimea.

Russia is a vast country, and its problems are also big. Russia does not have a warm water port that remains navigable throughout the year. Russia’s naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, is strategically important to Moscow. Since the Soviet era, Russia has been significantly benefited from its military presence in the entire Black Sea region. Due to the geopolitical importance of Crimea, Russia is reluctant to make any concession on it. Inversely, Ukraine, though not strong in military power, is stinging from the loss of Crimea. Although Crimea could not be saved, Ukraine has taken revenge. They have dammed the river Dinipar, a major source of Crimea’s water. Crimea is now in deep crisis of water. The Kremlin has to spend thousands of rubles to supply water through pipeline and the agricultural sector has become almost stagnant for want of water. Putin could demand lifting of the previous sanctions by making Ukraine hostage.

  Apart from military or nuclear arms, Russia’s most powerful weapon is its huge fuel stock. A quarter of Europe’s total oil and gas supply comes from Russia and Ukraine is Russia’s gateway to gas supply to Europe. Around 40 per cent of Russia’s gas supply passes through this pipeline. However, bypassing Ukraine, Moscow has constructed a 1,225-kilometer pipeline across the Baltic Sea to export gas to Germany. Work was completed last September, but it is yet to start functioning. Following the deployment of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, Germany announced the cancellation of approval of this project on 24th February.

Multidimensional cooperation of the Soviet Union in the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971 is known to all. Immediately after independence, the Soviet Union was directly involved in rebuilding war-torn Bangladesh and making the country’s major seaports mine free. At present, Russia’s Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom is playing a vital role in the development of Bangladesh’s power sector. Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant at Iswardi is the largest joint venture project under construction with the participation of Rosatom. A total of 2,400 MW of electricity will be generated from this plant.

    Meanwhile, trade between Russia and Bangladesh is increasing. Despite the negative effects of the global coronavirus Bangladesh-Russia trade reached a record high of $ 2.4 billion in 2020. According to Export Promotion Bureau amount of export to Russia was $ 66 crore 53 lacs. The major portion was readymade garments. The amount of import was $ 46 crore 67 lacs, major portion was food grains. Bangladesh has already procured Yak-130 training and warplanes, MI-17 and MI-161 helicopters, BTR-60 armoured personal carriers, MiG-29 fighter jets, and other special military equipment
from Russia.

Though not so multidimensional, the relationship with Ukraine should not be ignored by Bangladesh. Bangladesh exports fish, leather, readymade garments, textiles, vegetables, medicine, and tobacco to Ukraine and imports minerals, chemicals, machinery, and electrical equipment. In 2016, the Bangladesh Army signed an agreement for procuring 600 Ukrainian Tur-K2 and 60 Tur K-3 multipurpose armoured vehicles.

If Russia cuts off supplies to Europe, Europe will turn to the Middle East for an alternative energy source. As Bangladesh imports oil from the Middle East, there might be a tussle, and Bangladesh may have to pay an extra price.

Bangladeshi businesspersons are facing the adverse impacts of this crisis already. According to City Group, a leading importer of wheat, “Every year 8-10 lakh metric tonnes of wheat are imported which will be hampered.” Moreover, warships are unwilling to go to the Black Sea due to this.

Bangladesh always aims to maintain balanced relations with regional and global powers. If the Ukraine crisis worsens, it will be a litmus test for Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Bangladesh will expect a quick solution to this problem. If it lingers, the United States will have a watchful eye on Bangladesh’s position in various international forums, including the United Nations.

Due to some recent developments, there is a kind of tension between Bangladesh and the United States. The trade and investment sectors of Bangladesh are closely related to the United States, Britain, and the European Union, and they are directly involved in the Ukraine issue. So, experts think that politically and commercially, Bangladesh is not in a position to take any side openly. We have to be cautious at every step.

The writer is a former Commissioner of Taxes. He can be contacted at chinmayprasunbiswas@yahoo.com