Global political focus has shifted towards China for its rapid economic growth. From North America to South America, Europe to Asia, Africa to Australia, China has developed business ties and connectivity across the globe.
The United States thinks China is the only country in the world that has the economic, military, diplomatic and technological power to challenge America’s global hegemony. Thus, they want to prevent China’s growth and counter China’s influence in the global economy and international security architecture.
China transformed from a poor country to the second-largest economy in the world in a span of only four decades with almost 18 per cent of the world's population. Their economic fate shifted when Deng Xiaoping opened the economy and increased trade partnerships with the world.
A population that was once badly affected by a three-year-long famine is now producing autos, computers, phones, microchips, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, spaceships, and every commodity of human need all over the world.
The country not only grew economically but also alleviated more than 70 million Chinese people out of poverty within 40 years. With 1.4 billion people, China is the second largest populated country in the world.
A geographically big state, with a large population and a strong economy is powerful in the international system. China has repeatedly been saying that they aim for business development with the world to maintain their economic growth.
China’s economic growth has benefited its partners. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connects 153 countries through various trade routes. BRI is the biggest strategic and trade partnership in the history of the world.
This initiative has shifted global political focus from security concerns to economic ties, and shifted the development approach of the powerful nations from aid assistance to trade partnerships.
Rich nations gave money as loans and aid and in return pushed their political and economic agenda on the recipient country. China offers investment, trade partnerships and infrastructure developments.
Partnering countries develop their economy and infrastructure by building ports, airports, roads, and bridges. This helps build a positive image of the government within the country and gain public support.
America declared their Indo-Pacific Strategy to counter China in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean region. Under China’s BRI project, an 11,179 km long railway takes goods in Duisburg, Germany from China through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, and Poland.
Another hand of this connectivity comes from Kunming, China through Myanmar to Bangladesh and goes to Kolkata according to the plan, although the Indian government did not partner with China on this project.
Europe is an important market for China. Marine trade routes between these regions connect many seas and oceans, starting from the South China Sea, to the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca, Bay of Bengal, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Dubai in the Arab Sea, and then goes through the Horn of Africa, to red sea through Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea.
America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy plans to block China in all its important trading routes.
China’s claim over the South China Sea is based on historical evidence.
This claim puts China in conflict with the sovereign states located in the South China Sea which have their fair claim of EEZ based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), like the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.
Under America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Japan, Australia and the Philippines are developing their power to balance China in the Pacific. Crossing Indonesia and Malaysia in the Strait of Malacca, the South China Sea meets the Indian Ocean near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India.
This is the most important trade route in the world. India is the main counterbalancing party in this region for China.
India and China are trade partners and are divided over border disputes in Kashmir, Ladakh, and Arunachal Province. China is also a close military and economic ally of India’s “enemy-forever” Pakistan.
India is getting all the support from its Western friends to balance China in this region. If India blocks its important trade route in Andaman and Nicobar, they’ll need an alternate route.
Bangladesh is important for China to remove its high dependency on the Strait of Malacca by using the road connectivity under BRI that connects Bangladesh with Kunming.
Bangladesh has become an important player in regional politics. Bangladesh is important for both China and India for its geostrategic location. Bangladesh plays an important role in India’s Look East and Act East policy.
China claims Arunachal Province belongs to South Tibet. India needs to secure its territory by deploying its forces and by empowering its eastern region.
India has undertaken an East-West connectivity project that will connect 3300 sq kilometres area from Porbandar-Gujarat, Kota-Rajasthan, Jhansi-Uttar Pradesh, Muzaffarpur-Bihar, Dhalkhola-Uttar Dinajpur- West Bengal, Siliguri to Silchar-Assam.
On 1 November 2023 both the Prime Ministers of Bangladesh and India, Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi inaugurated three projects to improve trade, economy, and connectivity in India’s seven sisters region.
Akhaura-Agartala Cross border railway link connects the eastern part of Bangladesh with the historic Agartala to carry goods to the seven sisters’ region. This connectivity will also use Chattogram Port and the Karnaphuli Bangabandhu Underwater Tunnel.
Moreover, the 64.7 kilometres long Khulna-Mongla port rail line extends to the Petrapole cross-border railway link in West Bengal, India. Unit II of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant will produce 1300 MW of electricity in Khulna, Rampal Power project using coal.
Bangladesh is an important strategic partner for India in South Asia. India cannot balance China in this region without the support of Bangladesh. Like many other countries of the world, India has a high trade dependency on China.
The trade deficit between the two countries declined this year to USD 90 billion. China was India’s largest trade partner for a decade till 2021, superseded by the United States. The United States became India’s biggest trading partner to counter China.
According to the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the United States wants India as China’s counterbalance in South Asia, while India is interested in bringing a power balance in the region to continue trade, secure its territory and benefit from the ongoing economic war at the same time.
The West is trying to lower its dependency on China. So, they are looking for an alternative market and this opens opportunities for other players in the region.
Bangladesh takes a non-alignment policy in international politics. That helps Bangladesh to have security and development ties with America and Business ties with China, India and Russia. Bangladesh is important for China and the bilateral relations have been very smooth.
Although China recognized Bangladesh after the death of the father of the nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the bilateral relation focused on mutual economic gain under the present Awami League regime. Bangladesh can work as a balance between India and China.
India’s development will be hampered if Bangladesh doesn’t allow transit and connectivity to her seven sisters’ region. Without connectivity through Bangladesh development in this region cannot be transported.
Arunachal Province is very far from the centre. China is rapidly developing its space, naval and military power. In this scenario, it is important to increase security presence and empower the local community which is not possible without the support of Bangladesh.
India needs to treat Bangladesh as an equal partner in this new global order. Many policy analysts think the rental fees for using ports and cross-country transport for India are very low under the connectivity treaties.
Bangladesh should be included in the economic development of the seven sisters’ region as a business partner, and not only provide port facilities. With increasing connectivity tourism in the eastern states will increase.
Short-term port entry gratis visas for Bangladeshis should be gifted by India as soon as possible. Bangladeshis count as the second largest tourist arrivals in India contributing to their medical and lifestyle sector.
Free visa entry will strengthen people-to-people connection and trust between the two nations.
For economic development, both countries are securing their energy sources. It is important to design the overall development of a country from economic, social, gender, race, youth and climate perspectives.
The Maitree Super Thermal Project violates environmental impact assessment guidelines for coal-based thermal power plants. This project site is located 14 kilometres north of the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the world.
This forest protects Bangladesh from cyclones and houses hundreds of rare and different species of plants, amphibians, mammals, marine resources, birds, fish, reptiles and animals. Coal for this project shall be transported through a shallow river called the Pashur River, where five vessels carrying coal, crude oil and potash sank in the last 10 years.
Water released from the plant shall go to the forest with its pollutant components. 2023 is the hottest year in history and with so many climate disasters all over the world, people are concerned about climate change.
Both Bangladesh and India are vulnerable to sea level rise, frequent natural disasters, heavy rain, and drought. People are looking for solutions to end the use of fossil fuels and transfer to renewable energy.
Both Bangladesh and India need to work together to reject projects that damage the environment and design solutions using technology and innovation to engage youth and resource people.
The global political focus in South Asia has brought many opportunities and challenges for the region. America comes from the furthest west to counter the furthest eastern country China. The countries in between must decide how to participate in this global game.
Each country, its geography, resources, and people are different. The desire for prosperity should not leave the people behind. People need to enjoy prosperity as much as they work to earn it. India cannot develop without an overall development of the region.
They cannot leave the smaller nations behind. They cannot leave the people behind. To keep a power balance in the region with the giant China and have the giant America’s interest present in the region, a regional balance of awareness and unity is needed.
Regional organisations like SAARC and BIMSTEC are the right platforms to enhance trade, connectivity, trust, friendship and humanity among the countries. Bilateral relations will not help India against China.
Instead, multilateral solutions will empower each other and benefit all.
The author is an analyst of foreign policy and non-traditional security and an artist. She can be reached at [email protected]
